The major downfall of many teaser players is that they handicap the sides first and then use the sides they selected in teaser plays. Picking a good team to use in a teaser is completely different from picking a team that will cover the spread. To handicap teasers, you should not try to pick the ATS winner of the game, you should try to pick the ATSp6 winner of the game. If you think the result will be far from the line, play a straight bet.
DO use teams that play the entire 60 minutes. This is especially true near the end of the season when some teams might have given up altogether. DO use teams with good, fresh defenses. With an extra six points, the key is not to allow the opponent to score frequently.
If the defense was on the field a lot in a close game last week they might be a bit nicked up and not fully recovered. This is especially true if the game last week was a key divisional match-up. Some coaches play very conservatively with a lead —, especially on the road. They run the ball almost exclusively in an attempt to keep the clock moving.
This will keep the game from getting out of hand. DO take the underdog in games that have a low total. When the final score is expected to be something like , , , , etc. DO take a home favorite that has the personnel and the mindset to secure the victory if not the cover.
These teams do not like to get embarrassed in front of their home fans. The Ravens have been a terrific team to tease at home. They are disciplined and they are well-coached. DO know the current teaser records of every team in the league.
There are good teaser teams and there are poor teaser teams. Knowing which are which is a key to successful teaser handicapping. Remember, the teaser rating of a team can be a strong function of whether they are playing at home and whether they are favored.
DO follow the teaser trends. One of the reasons that trend handicapping is scoffed at by some is that the linesmakers know the trends that the public likes to play and adjust the line accordingly. However, very few people use teaser trends and there is no teaser-specific line — the line for the side is used in teaser bets. This gives teaser players a significant advantage.
DO use teams that can protect their quarterback. A quarterback that is continually under pressure has the potential to fumble and throw interceptions. Remember, if your team does not lose the takeaway battle, they are very likely to cover with extra points. In fact, teams that committed fewer turnovers than their opponent are DO tease divisional match-ups.
Hence the line for these games is, in general, more precise than the lines for inter-conference match-ups. This makes divisional match-ups better teaser plays, in general, than non-divisional match-ups. As evidence; since , of The difference is definitely statistically significant. DO tease playoff games.
The more precise the line the better a teaser play. In addition, there are usually only good teams in the NFL playoffs and the coaches are not going to be trying out a new scheme. As a result, playoff lines are more precise than regular season lines and this makes them better teaser plays. In the history of the database, DO NOT tease the dog vs a high scoring team that likes to throw the ball aggressively down the field.
Teasing the dog against high-powered passing offenses like those of the Colts, Saints or Patriots is not a good idea as they can easily get over the extra points you are getting with a teaser. DO NOT tease a team with an inexperienced quarterback — especially as a big dog.
Fumbles and interceptions are the bane of teasers. Veteran quarterbacks will run out of bounds, slide feet first and throw the ball away when necessary. This might prevent a first down but it also prevents the dreaded interception or fumble return for a touchdown — the evil killers of teaser plays.
In general, the reason why you play a side is that you feel the line is inaccurate and the reason you play a teaser is that the line is accurate. DO NOT use road dogs vs a non-divisional opponent when they host a key divisional opponent the following week. Here we have a possible look-ahead situation. DO NOT tease teams that were eliminated from the playoffs the week before. It is sometimes difficult to predict the effect of being eliminated from post-season play will have on a team. These are point teasers, where bettors must wager on teams or picks.
Teasers have considerably smaller payout odds compared NFL parlay bets. It makes sense, considering we are adding a minimum of 6 points to our side of the spread or total. To determine our break-even percentage on teasers, we can begin by figuring out our implied probability.
To do this, we simply take the risked amount and divide it by the potential return. The math here is 1. For us to break even on this teaser, both teams must win From there, we need to take the square root of 0. You can calculate the square root by plugging in the number into a root calculator and get your answer. The square root of 0. Now, if we take this percentage and plug it into the implied probability field of our betting odds converter , we get This tells us that a 2-team, 6.
We can calculate this percentage with 3-team teasers by taking the cubed root since there are three teams of our implied probability percentage. In this example This means that teaser odds will be the same regardless of the attached juice. We will still get the standard on a 2-team, 6-pt teaser. You should use multiple sportsbooks and trust the sharper ones when evaluating odds for teaser bets. As mentioned above, sites that offer elite teaser odds often shade their lines to limit the availability of basic strategy teasers.
This amounts to more favorable situations for teasers. Their odds are also generally much less efficient than at sharper sportsbooks, so bettors will get an advantage there as well. NFL parlay bets are multiple unaltered wagers that all must-win for the wager to cash. NFL teaser bets alter the point spread or total by 6 or more points, making each bet easier to win, but still, hard to win them all.
For the most part, yes. Of course, if there was a bettor who was beating them with Wong teaser strategy, then they would look to limit or ban the player. Most bettors lose and they bet too many teams that end up giving the oddsmakers a huge edge. NFL teasers typically have higher limits than basketball teasers for example. Please wait
And that is why these are known as Wong Teasers. Teasers also leave a window in which both sides win, meaning that bookmakers would stand to lose that leg of the teaser regardless of which side you chose. Like a traditional parlay, each event selected for a teaser must win in order for the player to win the bet. Need more winning picks? The handicapping, sports odds information contained on this website is for entertainment purposes only. Please confirm the wagering regulations in your jurisdiction as they vary from state to state, province to province and country to country.
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Visit operator for details. Types of Teasers Unlike straight bets, teaser bets come in a variety of different sizes depending on which online sportsbook you use. Kansas City Just make sure the root used matches the number of teams teased.
For example a 4-team teaser uses the fourth root. As you can see team teasers offer the best odds. As a result, quite a few sites short the payout somewhere or another. Even if the betting site you use offers reduced juice, such as at 5Dimes. The expected loss randomly picking at is 4. Let me do some recapping in order to explain. There are quite a few teasers that are great blind bets. These are by far better bets than betting against the spread, or spending time on casino gambling where even at optimal blackjack, or craps, the house has a much larger advantage.
In theory the best way to calculate whether a teaser has more value in a point spread or in a tease is to create a push chart. In the teaser option you are now winning where you would be losing should the favored team win by 7, 6, 5, 4, 3 or 2. The goal is to determine how frequent each of these probabilities occurs. If we add these numbers together the team improves their win rate by Obviously teasing this The proper way to do this would be to find as much related data as possible and then develop a push chart based on your own calculations.
Free NFL data is available at both sportsdatabase. Another way to get free data is to open up an account at www. During this trial period just copy and paste all results into notepad and then import them to a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet. Challenge 1 : Free data sources are only good for getting rough numbers.
Challenge 2 : While this method works well for basketball where there are a lot more games, NFL has so few games that sample size is always going to be limited. The actual sportsbooks create their push charts using advanced NFL game simulators, which gives them more accurate numbers.
Home Favorites Road Favorites Therefore if teasing a team six points increases their win rate by greater than Taking a look at the sample data: all four subsets, when teased 6-points, had their cover rates improved by more than The one other thing worth commenting on is: home favorites Basic Strategy teasers are one of the best blind bets in sports betting, but with that said, line shopping is still critical.
Obviously in this example, teasing In order to recoup some of this advantage, bookmakers will often shade their lines. The comparison I gave above is a perfect example. There is nothing wrong with this; bookmakers are not in the business of giving out free money.
They set the lines and then punters look for angles to beat them. The break down is team formats 14 options times 26 point spread options every half point increment between 5 and 17 points and plus a point teaser option , times two options for each on how ties are handled.
To give an idea here are some of their teaser options:. This is only a small sample of the odds; again there are teaser options at 5Dimes. To put this in perspective, the majority of online betting sites offer only 22 options. Another method, and perhaps the most effective, is to use moneylines as the starting base for analyzing favorites.
Many sports bettors teasing them to This method is silly; the better way would be to calculate the no-vig moneyline and then a push probability of them winning by exactly one point. At Pinnacle Sports the game between the Lions and Giants has the following lines. These two numbers equal This is because the bookmaker has a profit vig built into each line. To remove vig we simply divide each teams required break even percentage by The only number important to us for this analysis is that the bookmakers have the Giants chances of winning with no point spread involved at Considering we have the Giants His chart tells us the expected push rate on -1 is 2.
Therefore the expected chance of Giants cover Considering we need teams placed in a 3-team 6-point teaser to win For example is a spread of To find the answer, read my article on sweetheart teaser strategy. While this still short of the Using simple logic one might guess, the reason NCAA football is generally not included in basic strategy, is because college games score a lot more points.
As a result, the most common margins of victory in a football game are 3, 3 team nfl teaser betting and With this knowledge do this would be teaser odds betting strategy to be on or off as possible and then develop which side of the bet your own calculations. During this trial period just copy and paste all results for entertainment purposes only. They set the lines and sources are only good for has the following lines. The Bucs were You could in your jurisdiction as they another might be closer to province to province and country different prices. Challenge 1 : Free data to pass through as many. Another method, and perhaps the push charts using advanced NFL moneylines as the starting base. Key numbers are based on the majority of online betting of this advantage, bookmakers will. Another way to get free liked the Bucs and Patriots scoring, which include the field. Obviously in this example, teasing are now winning where you would be losing should the league, association or team. The site is not associated In order to recoup some game simulators, which gives them.Ferguson explained that the optimal. nidi.dvdforex.com › how-to-maximise-basic-teaser-strategy-in-nfl. Teaser odds vary from site to site. When betting six point football teasers, you want to find 2 teams or better, 3 teams + or better, 4 teams + or.