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With a mixture of ambitious, financially backed clubs looking to hit the big time, former Premier League giants that have fallen on hard times and ufc betting odds 15206 lower-league clubs desperate to avoid the drop into non-league, there is so much riding on the English fourth tier each and every season. Salford City, backed by former Manchester United superstars such as Gary Neville and David Beckham, will compete with another north-west club in the shape of Bolton Wanderers fixtures football league 2 betting if stoke city vs liverpool betting expert boxing fixtures football league 2 betting are to be believed. There will be shocks, surprises, thrills and spills along the way and you can count on the Squawka Bet experts to put in the time it takes to research and analyse the League Two betting markets to bring you our best predictions and tips every single step of the way. As with all of our tips, we do our utmost to get our predictions live and ready for you at least 48 hours before kick-off time. We pride ourselves on our depth of knowledge of English football too, right down to League Two and even beyond that, plus our extensive access to the data helps us to select the best bets for each round of fixtures. There are plenty of opportunities for League Two inplay betting nowadays. Whilst placing a mid-match bet used to be very difficult and in some cases limited only to certain matches, it now appears that the vast majority of games across the world are available to bet on as the action unfolds and the English fourth tier is in no way exempt from this, with live, in-play odds available on almost every single Football League match across a game campaign.

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Betting newspapers betdaq nfl

This includes the likes of bet, Flutter Entertainment, and William Hill. Allowing personalisation to the finest detail, operators offer products that are. The new TradeGate component has been developed with the simultaneous use of multiple Managed Trade Services in mind.

From this, operators can cherrypick the most suitable MTS provider for them across each sport or region. While we may be some way off, and before you dismiss this as a possibility, let's just take stock of the current situation. In Sweden, amidst a furore over aggressive market tactics by newly licensed operators, the former gambling monopoly operator Svenska Spel has announced a voluntary advertising ban, while Lotteritilsynet the gambling regulator in neighbouring Norway - has unsurprisingly proposed a ban on TV gambling advertising by offshore gaming operators.

Of course, the UK has not emerged unscathed. This followed an April call from GVC - owners of Ladbrokes Coral amongst others - to end all football shirt sponsorship deals with UK teams and implement a ban on perimeter board advertising at football grounds. Others have gone further, calling for imposition of the same restrictions that apply to tobacco advertising. Ever the opportunist, Paddy Power.

What certainly seems inevitable is that after the cuts made to TV advertising, and the subsequent shirt sponsorship fall out, the focus will now shift to gambling advertising online. An interim report published in July by GambleAware recommended that technology should be used more often to try to reduce exposure to gambling advertising online and much more on this can be expected when the final report is published later this year.

The new sportsbook is backed by a multi-channel marketing campaign featuring ex-England defender Glen Johnson and Game of Thrones star Ralph Ineson. The entirely new sportsbook offers a shared Betdaq wallet, best odds guaranteed, full and partial cash out, live streaming and in-play betting with visualisations.

SM: We have launched the Betdaq sportsbook on a completely new sportsbook platform, developed in partnership with our exchange platform provider, gbet, so we wanted to take the quieter period - with no summer football tournament - to get. SBC: How aggressive do you expect to be in terms of pricing and other acquisition strategies across the first few months? Our pricing and promotion strategy will be aimed at building a quality customer base rather than seeking aggressive growth.

SBC: Can you outline the scale of the cross-sell opportunity between the sportsbook, casino and legacy exchange betting offering? SM: The launch of sportsbook is more about capturing a greater share of wallet from our customers than cross selling the sportsbook to existing exchange customers.

We also feel that we can get better returns from redirecting some of our acquisition. SBC: Does the exchange retain number 1 priority for the company? SM: Yes, absolutely. Our intention is that any success we have with sportsbook will help to drive further investment and growth in the exchange.

And is there scope for the concept to become big in the US? SBC: Going back to the sportsbook, how much confidence do you have in gbet as software provider? What are the biggest plus points of the technology? Our exchange stability has been fantastic, industry leading, and last year we celebrated going through days without an unplanned outage, which was a great milestone to reach.

SBC: Finally, can you summarise the key goals for the second half of , both for the sportsbook and the company as a whole? SM: Our key goal for H2 is to establish three strong product and revenue verticals for the business across exchange, casino and sportsbook. Earlier this year we completed integration to the GVC Casino and Gaming platform which was a major upgrade for our Casino offering and the launch of sportsbook now completes the major product technology projects that we set out to deliver in From here we will be focused on incremental enhancements.

Ladbrokes has been around for years, for example, and we think it is only right that we lead by example in the area of social responsibility to protect both our customers and our business. It is by recognising that we are in it for the long term that enables us to lead in social responsibility, so our customers can enjoy betting as part of their entertainment and sport for a long time to come.

The International Betting Integrity Association formerly known as ESSA has been representing the betting and integrity interests of the responsible, licenced, betting operators for 15 years by:. This is obviously a terrible customer experience. This can cause some pain if they have to pay. At a time when the use of official or unofficial data throws up such debate, albeit more so in the US market, Jeyaratnam said that access to richer data - including quicker confirmation of a VAR check and the challenge flag - would create extra value for the official feed.

All of a sudden the wording of that is problematic because if it is awarded, then removed, do we need to pay out? At the moment we do. So we are going to have to tighten up all those things - it's not just the black and white ruling it's the wording of the markets too. What's going to happen in the next minute, two minutes etc.

Quite often that could now almost be null and void because there's no action. We offered this manually during the World Cup and saw huge numbers of bets. So there's definitely opportunity there. He explained that while the process is meant to take out external influence, there were still coaches and backroom staff trying to exert pressure before the award of the controversial penalty that took Manchester United through against PSG in the Parc des Princes.

It makes more sense, therefore, that the decision goes to someone more neutral. I come from a family of bookies, my Great-Grandad worked with both the fairground and roulette wheels. My Grandad was a bookie before it was legalised in the UK, and then went on to own a number of betting shops when it was eventually legalised in the s. And then my Dad was born and raised in both the betting shops and on the racetracks, and so was I, so it was always in my blood.

I was raised. My first job online was Sportingbet in Guernsey and the Channel Islands, which now seems like a very long time ago. And then just over 10 years ago, Sportingbet decided that they would. So I stayed with Sportingbet out there for a few years, began to build my network, and then started to make my way moving up the ladder.

SBC: So in 10 years you climbed the ladder from being a junior trader to a CEO, what would you say were the major challenges that you had to overcome during that time? PF: To make it, you definitely have to have an appetite for risk.

You have got to be prepared to take chances that others might not be prepared to take. Even moving to the Philippines a few years ago was considered a considerable risk, but one that I am extremely glad to have taken. So certainly an appetite for risk. I had to be active, put myself out meeting people, and try new things and then gradually more opportunities began to arise. You are placed out of your comfort zone, but that was something that I had to do which arguably turned out to be the best decision that I have made.

I would say that it would be a combination of those things. SBC: What, for you, has been the most memorable moment during those 10 years? So, going on to sponsor a Premier League team for me was a massive deal. I had my mum there with me when I was holding the jersey on Sky Sports News, which was something that definitely stood out for me.

SBC: What would be the advice that you would give newcomers to the industry? PF: Firstly you need to remember that nothing happens overnight, everything takes time. You might sometimes think that some people have become overnight success stories, but you really have to be ready to put in a lot. And for me, you can start at the bottom, and work your way up - it might take you 10 years, but it definitely can be done.

You do need to take risks, and you need to push yourself out of your comfort zone. I would always recommend to anyone in any industry that if there is an opportunity for. It will help significantly broaden your horizons. PF: More success, hopefully! I just returned from one of my best holidays in recent years.

We had a family trip to the island of Rhodes in Greece, one of my favourite places to visit where I lived for a year and spent every summer while I was a student. Rhodes is an amazing island with a lot of history and beautiful beaches, as well as a vibrant nightlife and great food.

And a decent casino! My music taste is quite diverse and it varies depending on the mood, time of the year or environment. Therefore, I don't usually stick to one album but I enjoy the diversity of music that Spotify offers. However, one of my all-time favourites is Frank Sinatra and his Greatest Hits album.

After all, 'Strangers in the Night' was the first dance song at my wedding. It's hard to point out just one but I will go with the football Euro qualifier at Wembley in between England and Montenegro - my home country. Being there with some of my friends to support Montenegro and watching us almost defeat England in front of 73, people. Too bad the ball hit the crossbar a couple of minutes before the end of the game and it stayed at - a win would have been a perfect ending to a great evening!

I don't remember watching a very good movie in a very long time; it seems that mass production kills quality. Apart from the classics such as The Shawshank Redemption that is on my list of the best movies of all time, in recent years I shifted to watching more interesting TV series, with The Sopranos and The Wire making my top list.

This book helped me self-reflect and learn about some very interesting views and approaches to leadership that I hope will help me in improving my own leadership style. I also enjoyed participating in a pool betting league where I competed against the great Sven Goran Eriksson and Harry Redknapp and ended up 2nd at the end of the season. The Sports Betting Hall of Fame was curated to recognise the individuals who have contributed a great deal to the industry over the course of their careers with a lasting legacy.

The purpose is to honour, preserve. This is why I was so happy to accept the offer to join the sports betting pioneers who have already been recognised for their contribution. There are many innovative people driving the sector forward and providing entertainment to millions of customers every week, so I am humbled that I have been picked out to join the Sports Betting Hall of Fame this year.

JA: I am honoured. JH: It is of course a great honour to be inducted, especially as a non-industry person. And looking at the work done by the previous inductees, I must say that I am in good company! SBC: What are you most proud of in your career? And what would you do differently? JA: I have had a long and interesting career spanning three industries property, hotels and gaming. I have been been upfront in my dealings with people throughout.

I have enjoyed the highs and learnt a lot from the lows. SBC: As someone involved in the first set of gambling sponsorships at , has the recent advertising crackdown surprised you? Are we heading for a Europe-wide ban? JA: Nothing surprises me when it comes to regulatory change or advertising crackdowns. This industry has always faced regulatory headwinds, and a European wide ban is possible. There is still so much to be positive about. SBC: How effective were those early.

JA: The thing that really kick started things for , or casino-on-net as it was known then, was a decision to buy up all of the distressed online ad inventory we could get our hands on following the. We felt it was massively underpriced and looking back we were right. At the time, we were one of the top five advertisers on the net across all industries.

The key aim of our sponsorship push was to get our brand on UK TV. This was before the Gambling Act, which saw the introduction of TV ads for gambling firms. We were very disciplined, and every activity had to be responsible for itself.

We focused on ROI and were able to grow the budget cost effectively, and quickly. It was a very successful period for the company. Would they be the same challenges as a gambling IPO today? JA: When I look back at the market now, at the time it was down. Our confidence in our product came through strongly. We were a very professional outfit by the time we floated. The timing was critical, and we made sure the institutional market was focused on our brand. There does not seem to be the same excitement in the industry, not in Europe anyway.

Perhaps we are seeing the same kind of excitement now in the US as we saw in the early days in the UK. There are reputational issues in Europe that need to be addressed. You have to be both creative and resilient to succeed in this game. SBC: Did you go online looking to make a bet that day or was it something you did on impulse when you came across the Intertops site? JH: I had been sport betting locally in Finland and then I found the Intertops site probably through one of the first search engines available or from an online advert.

I saw the service and became interested by the user friendliness of betting online. I also liked the variety of betting options. The odds can't have been long? JH: I have to admit, the first bet was also a test. I wanted to see how the financial transaction would work and reassure myself of the viability of betting online through Intertops. But they turned out to be reliable in all aspects of betting online.

So I placed a bet on Tottenham winning. I guess back then large volumes of simultaneous bets might have. SBC: Do you still bet in your spare time? What keeps your interest? JH: Yes I still make sports bets online, as a hobby of course. I usually make bets on Premier league matches and in the winter time I make some bets on NHL games us Finns are in to ice hockey of course! And the Premier League matches just got even more interesting for us by the introduction of Norwich into the Premier League with their Finnish striker Teemu Pukki.

He scored a hat trick in the match against Newcastle. Did you see the second goal, a halfvolley kick… that was unbelievable!!! The always-on, low-latency push feed enables the creation of custom streams of odds changes, thresholds, volatility fluctuations and synthetic pricing across all major betting markets. Unrivalled coverage enables you to run algorithmic trading and offer more betting opportunities for your customers with no extra resources. Unlimited subscriptions mean you can quickly adapt to changing business needs.

Start, edit and stop absorbing new data from bookmakers in seconds. TraderFeed allows you to subscribe to specific datasets. All processing is done within the feed in real time to avoid latency issues and directly supply you with the data that you need. Multiple redundant hosting solutions in Asia and Europe ensure the lowest latency possible wherever you are based. TXDASH TXDash is a business odds comparison tool that gives instant access to comparative analysis and reports based on operator and competitor coverage.

The sophisticated analytics, used within the platform, offer users greater insights into a wide range of dimensions, and provides hugely valuable information about the industry and its operators. Perform complex queries on the archive of precise time-stamped data we have stored and enjoy fast response times. The scope of customised reports available make it an integral tool for all departments within any organisation.

Results of reports can be downloaded in CSV format for further anlaysis and reporting either manually or default. Create reports based on multiple aggregations such as match count, average over-rounds, suspensions, coverage, markets…the list is endless. Each EU state has its. The consequence of this is 28 very different sets of regulations and 28 different sets of customer experience. You need financial power, a clean corporate structure and individual backgrounds, as well as strong local partners to succeed.

The way there, however, is long and tedious. Also, technical integrations with local regulators including geo blockings are not that easy to deliver. In addition, new sports point by point trading with fast paced, rapidly changing results. Official data provided by sports organisations directly into the bookie tool of operators will become vital in order to reduce time lapses between live events and broadcast results. US sports betting revolution from afar, as he spends his time completing nonexec work for the likes of Crocobet, Betbull and EveryMatrix.

The team working on its launch is, for sure, one which has the ability to surprise the industry. For established players, it is a welcome event to build out your network and stay up to-date with new developments. Last but not least, it is a welcomed distraction from your dayto-day routine. This creates a scenario where platform providers are delivering and transferring the same experience to their customers, with nothing that distinguishes one brand from the other in terms of UX.

Ultimately it is the wrong approach to be undertaken because operators are becoming franchises of the same UX that comes part and parcel with the technology that is delivered from the service providers. Individual operators working with BtoBet now have the freedom to differentiate totally the UI and UX for each channel through key elements — especially from a mobile perspective — such as front-end visualizations, side menus, and the way that the.

However, the way you present this makes all the difference. This is why BtoBet has launched the White Label Partnership Program which caters highly customizable off-theshelf solutions that can represent. Either they have the knowledge and people to build it themselves, or we send a UX analyst. The more a market matures, the more such an approach will reap its benefits.

Mobile was strongly emerging, diverse payment methods as well. It was the perfect moment to acquire a leading position. It is the perfect moment to acquire a position and be ready for regulation in the likes of Brazil and Peru. Because we have adapted our technology for this market. When you take an off-the-shelf product, the process is already defined. You log in, deposit, select a bet, and subsequently place a bet. Was he flattered by the Naas win, or has he improved a ton? Barring accident, this race will tell us.

Double Seven has won five in a row right up to Listed level hiking his weight 35lb, but all have come on right-handed tracks. His record left-handed over fences, including at leopardstown, is 00PP, though he did win anti-clockwise over hurdles at Tipperary way back. The Arthur Moore stable, which has Home Farm at the front of the market, has won this race twice since and may saddle another winner in Pass The Hat, 9.

They piled on the money over a trip too far at Navan, held up too far off the pace, and again when heavy ground beat him at Limerick. Daring Article 5. The exchanges remain to your dictate. Make offers you think are right and take offers you think are wrong.

Price up the races for Cheltenham, make the offers you think are right, take the offers you think are wrong, and be twice lucky. The orange-and-green of the Irish flag is raised by a legion of winners year on year at the festival and you can nail your colours to the orange of the BETDAQ betting offers and the green of the lays.

Be up for the craic and win money with the winners. It must be easy: even I can do it! Notice I made 7. Long term, as with this November-March duel, or short term, at the one festival meeting, you can stack up value as you go along, if you keep your Daq up! Best Cheltenham betting year of all for this column was 22 Festival wins in March, , but the best long-term coup was an unbeaten sequence of lays through three consecutive festivals.

From , through the festival and completing the meeting, I had 16 successful lays in a row. No losers or rather, no winners. Keep your wallet topped up by spotting the lays. I had another 10 lays in a row in September, , so again, short term or long term, if you can get into the pattern of lays success, you can win money by backing losers! I built a bank for my betting, just by backing losers.

You play by laying your offers down in full view. Recoup your early position. Trade and profit. Win when you lose. Not the Mares Hurdle. Not the Champion Hurdle. Punters will hope that this announcement is the end of speculation.

But why take him out of the Cheltenham market altogether? Ladbrokes are reliable, as well as being in the know. For instance, unlike 14 bookmakers in the Oddschecker list, they have removed the Supreme Novice Hurdle favourite, Irving, from their County Hurdle market. It seems that 14 well-known firms just want to take your money! I took 6. The drop back in trip will suit this front-runner, who may have most to fear from 8. Yet, claimed off, he will line up only 4lb higher than for the first of the February treble, and will receive weight from all bar the bottom horse.

Sulis Minerva the Roman name for Bath is also a 6f mare. Hillybilly Boy nothing to sing about last won a seller. But, though she is top weight and favourite this morning 4. She was a bit fresh after four months off, otherwise might have turned her neck defeat at Kempton recently into victory.

Both saddle horses running into form, and the 7. A final test for class in this race would inevitably point to Josses Hill, second in the Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle and with a plethora of bookmakers. But then, 13 of the last 14 winners had a rating of or more and nine of the last 10 had won or been placed at the Cheltenham Festival before. Only one winner has broken through the 11st barrier, and the winning-ratings parameter has a 10st 11lb maximum this year.

Four of the last five winners had been dropped between 5lb and 10lb in the ratings in the lead up to this. Just two runs this year, seventh in the Hennessy and fifth in the Grand National trial. Our Father is set to carry 10st 10lb. Modern champions with more than two wins in the race started their sequence at age seven, including Hurricane Fly himself.

The only seven-year-old in the race is My Tent Or Yours. His trainer, Nicky Henderson, had a sequence winner See You Then and the stable came good again with two six-year-olds, Punjabi and Binocular, in the modern era. He has Shutthefrontdoor and Holywell among the fancied horses, and a six-year-old like the favourite Foxrock has won only once since He was pulled up last time out but had also run badly before Perth.

The Clyda Rover could bounce back but Flying Award has earned his wings more than once for this sort of event and 6. Apologies NEW!!! Meanwhile, he lays bare the stats and facts to help you decide for yourself where to risk your money at the four-day festival. Out goes Rathvinden, Sea Lord and Upazo, leaving a short-list of Recognise him? But, if you take out those with fewer than three chase starts and without a win or a place in a Graded race, you are left with a BETDAQ offers of 8.

Watch out for the selections of these two champion handlers. Those stats suggest that you look no further than Sire De Grugy 3. But the stats say you must have a horse aged eight to 12, off 10st 9lb or less 6 out of 8 , which is a strong pointer to one horse, Any Curerency, a narrow second in a similar CD x-country in December, and third in November.

On both occasions, the ground was riding good. Only ninth in this championship last season, Any Currency is 9. This column is already on Balthazar King at 7. Sudden Wish is a stand-out in the grade, with nearest market rivals Addikt, Polydamus and My Renaissance all having to resort to class 7 to get a win or a place. Ryan Moore back in the saddle. Much more likely to clear up is Andrew Balding with Bishop Of Ruscombe, his charges improving no end after just one run. Another scopey individual is Dynamic Ranger.

Not yet in play then, but it could be different tonight. Five-year-olds from the top end of the handicap have won both runnings so far and I remember this column being on Moonday Sun a good second at a big price over a mile at Lingfield. In the Lincoln?

Rebellious Guest was unable to carry the penalty for beating Moonday Sun and he stays on that mark today, also drawn high. The Winter Derby awaits. Epic Battle has looked a good stone short of class 2 at Wolver the last twice but, as a four-year-old from a top yard, improvement can be expected. Bancnuanaheireann may prefer his wide stall in Best guess for me today is the unexposed Ansaab 9 races in his life , a winner on Polytrack at Dundalk, who caught the eye, running on second here at Kempton over a mile a month back.

Hope he stays sound for this. The usual suspects for a lay are those up in the ratings. Seven of them have scored in a higher grade. Seven of them have already won at Kempton. But is it that open? The prize has gone to four-year-olds in every one of its three years in existence, all three from stalls His return to a mile is significant after he dropped out in the last furlong over 1m 2f when badly drawn here last time. Daqman leads 25 returns to 9.

Will the half-dozen plus-rated horses this year change all that? Historically not; last year those rated Dynaste , and were second, fifth and sixth, and the year before 8th , PU and 3rd were thrashed by the rated Sir Des Champs. Taquin De Seuil punters could get 8. This one. Those two were rated 20lb apart off and ; one came to the race with form figures 00P0, the other ; one had had 25 hurdles runs, one only six.

What chance have we got! Well, the ratings lore of the race seems to be: carries 10st 8lb to 11st 7lb six out of eight ; 35 horses off or more have all failed in the last 13 years. Fingal Bay and Champagne West, two of the four market leaders with bookmakers, get black marks, since they are racing off and And, at , they are nine points lower than the consensus about a horse called Milan Bound.

Trained by? Thomas Wild was a lucky winner at Exeter last time out when the leader baulked at the paddock entrance, and was well held when he fell behind Flying Award early last season. I shall lay Benbens at 1. Milans Well is two from two at Wincanton, both between January and April last year, but in the first of them two of his three rivals fell or unseated at two of the last three fences, and there was more mayhem in the second one.

The Limpley Stoke, Bath, stable of Neil Mulholland Rossa Parks is in winning form and Victor Dartnall Tolkeins Tango is doing well right now, if only he had a better record at Wincanton won nothing for nearly two years with 30 starters. Daqman currently leads Pricewise 25 returns to 9.

The winning-ratings band is very narrow: here are the last eight winners by official rating: , , , , , , and Nine out of 10 were aged seven, eight or nine, and five had had eight or nine steeplechase starts. Only Bobs Worth fits all these stats as the market stands now. But the turnkey stat is that there has been no success from 11st or above in 14 seasons and in 21 of the last 25 years.

Recent form means he is 8. In truth, both horse and rider will have been intensively trained for this pre-Cheltenham gold cup for the military, none more so than Polisky, whose trainer Paul Nicholls is with his runners in this. Bradley had six races inside a year in Grade-3 company but has been a flatterer and has done no better dropped in class since November. However, Solix, who has shown some class as a runner in the Coral Cup and the Jewson at Cheltenham in the past, and in his more recent fifth in the Tommy Whittle and fourth in the Great Yorkshire, has an attribute which often wins these races.

He can go with the pace. Hold-up horses tend to get too far out of their ground under amateur riders. At the double, then, captain! Solix, at eight, has a touch of class and the potential to improve. Good chance for Stormin Exit. Samson Collonges — at 8. Now read on. You need to be with the big yards, which have quality in depth to choose from. David Pipe and Paul Nicholls are the only trainers represented today with horses near the top of the markets for the big novice hurdles at Cheltenham And only Caesar Milan behind Champagne West and Gone Too Far rear view of Vaniteux of this final field have taken on big-time Cheltenham contenders.

Gone Too Far needs the ground to dry out. I have to report that the galloping major, who was following in the illustrious footsteps of Jack Colling at the fabulous Berkshire base, never came to tea at Troy House, the home I bought on the proceeds of my hefty punt. Hasopop, who kept Listed and Group company on turf, had a promising recent run back at Lingfield. Another Group performer, Highland Knight, usually needs a couple of runs, and Andrew Balding may do better with Listed placed Intransigent, just returned from campaigning in Dubai.

Bertiewhittle, Listed second at Kempton in November, and also back from Dubai to run a close third at Lingfield a fortnight ago. He is one of those much-loved horses who is forgiven anything by Joe Punter. And some. Only one horse drawn lower than six has won in 10 years: gates 9 to 13 are six from Only four successful in those 31 seasons have been older than seven. Back to the end of the card please, you breeders! His column is on Rocky twice, at To name but a few, as they say!

Folsom Blues was in his element when winning the Punchestown Grand National Trial 3m 4f a year or so back, and faced the very smart Mozoltov on his run back over a mile shorter. I think his training trajectory is to peak for the Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse over Easter but, with plenty of use made of him, could be a threat to Los Amigos today.

Barring mishap today, I shall continue to back them both, with Punchestown and Fairyhouse in mind if, as expected, Goonyella leaves the big Irish staying prizes to them and goes to Aintree. Target points profit at Cheltenham. This is in keeping with a general raising of stakes to win at big meetings. Bankers were lagging behind. He gave six in a row in each of and and four in His profit at 10 points a lay was points.

How many doubles that would have made! Daqman leads 25 returns to Get your Daq up! You need a three-time winner, with big-field success, Graded-race quality and a bumper background. Say no more! The snag with Irving is that he lacks the street cred of a big-field success, unless you count a lowly runner classnovice at Taunton.

He has never raced in a bumper and, as a flat-track winner Ascot, Kempton , his turn will come at Aintree. He is behind Vautour on a line through Lieutenant Colonel, who swerves a rematch with the Mullins boys, but he beat Western Boy won only twice a long way in a bumper. I prefer Josses Hill to stablemate Vaniteux. The enigma of the race is The Liquidator, Champion Bumper fourth last season and winner of the CD trial for this in November but a flop in the Tolworth.

Has David Pipe got him back? My main home defender is Josses Hill, Now add: 2pts win at Apart from an ordinary year for the race in the s, only Sir Ken has gone on to win an Arkle at the age of nine since it began as the Cotswold Chase in You could equally say that Champagne Fever has had a raw deal from the handicapper as to the merits of his Supreme Novice Hurdle success.

Though he beat My Tent Or Yours currently on and Jezki , he remains on over hurdles and over fences. If so then the on at Leopardstown about Champagne Fever, winner of the Champion Bumper on good ground and of the Supreme Novice on soft, was madness. In this case, 13 of the last 14 winners came from below 11st. I also spotted in my stats research that four of the last five winners had been dropped between 5lb and 10lb in the ratings.

Tour Des Champs is one today, 10lb lower than when he ran in this last year, and an incredible 27lb better off with the winner, Golden Chieftain. That all smacks of improvement. If anything is unexposed to the handicapper, that animal is going to be seven or eight and lightly raced. Hurricane Fly has been one of the hurdling greats with 19 Grade-1 wins but beating the same horses over and again does not put him in the same league as a Hattons Grace or a Sea Pigeon , who both won it at the age of Cailin Annamh and Highland Retreat prefer to go right-handed.

Cockney Sparrow, big and raw last year, got within three lengths of My Tent Or Yours in November and was only two lengths down to Annie Power at Doncaster when she fell. This extra trip should suit, distance wise and make jumping easier. Quevega is said to have had a better home prep this year than ever, according to Willie Mullins.

Cockney Sparrow is just now making up into a real racemare, and is massive at And the place bet will return three times the win price about Quevega. His two last winners scored off ratings of and , and this level was maintained through with , and horses winning it.

Jonjo seems wide awake to the changes, saddling Shutthefrontdoor, an Accordion stamina index Firm Order and Midnight Prayer have bags of stamina in the pedigree. Herdsman and Suntiep are improving but seem to need the mud. According To Trev ran a stinker in the Great Yorkshire but is another Accordion, likes Cheltenham, and handles top of the ground.

I shall take an improver who stays until the mother-in-law has run out of breath. Stamina is an issue for Ahyaknowyerself, Pendra and Tony Star. The little-known northern nine-year-old has been runner-up this year, first to Western Warhorse, then to Holywell, both big winners on the opening day of Cheltenham. A blushing handicapper must have his rating wrong by around 20lb! But you have to make two assumptions here. Son of the superb racemare Lady Cricket, he is by the same sire as Annie Power.

Those who back Westerners on good ground were laughing at My outsider to get into the three is Lieutenant Colonel, A good second to Vautour in December. The race should play to the strengths of Lieutenant Colonel, unexposed at the trip. Ballycasey has not passed his exams. Not so, Ballycasey. And the questions we seek to answer — does Paul Nichols have a Denman and does Willie Mullins have a Cooldine ?

Is this a case of play it again, Sam? Not much between him and Sam Winner on Newbury form but that was on heavy ground. If in doubt in these championship events, look for a Presenting or an Oscar. With the Cheltenham hill in mind, I checked out the videos on this field, and it was an eye-opener to see that, in both races he won, Morning Assembly was overtaken but fought back to win.

Sam Winner Both love Cheltenham. This is not a Master Minded year or a Sprinter Sacre procession , and Sizing Europe, Somersby and Wishfull Thinking, who were around in those days, all have to do a Moscow Flyer and win for the double-figure-age group. I doubt they are up to it. In that case 6. Balthazar King has form at Cheltenham on good ground, good-to-soft at worse, since April of , still standing. But the stats say you need a horse off 10st 9lb or less 6 out of 8 , which is a strong pointer to Any Currency, a narrow second in a similar CD x-country in December, and third in November.

This one has had twice , , , and scorers in the last decade. Irish-breds have won 17 out of 21, with 16 of them trained in Ireland. But six of the last eight winners have started , , , , and and you are looking for one with only two or three previous starts, never out of the first two. And painful on the wallet not to get a run from Captain Conan in the Champion Stakes yesterday.

Two title bouts, two technical knockouts! Winners of that race are always horses to follow. Platinum to her gold, I think. This race in his honour produced Sir Des Champs in but is notable for three consecutive defeats by the highest-rated equine celebs in the race: Dynaste was second last year, Peddlers Cross was last to finish the year before, and the first JLT saw Wishfull Thinking also stuffed. What beat them? The younger generation. They make up half the field today and one of them may have the X-factor over the older market leaders like Felix Yonger and Oscar Whisky, who have both come late to jumping fences.

Quite the opposite applies to Willie Mullins. He has great scope.. Yes twice over. So I can have 2. That, in a nutshell, is why winners of the heats lose out in the final. The exceptions are the odd-man-out qualifier winner, Ballyfitz , and the following year Kayf Aramis. The one among the top bunch who has those Pertemps winning form-figures is Trustan Times.

Once upon a Trustan Times, he beat Holywell in a Grade 3, giving him 12lb. On the Bridge will love the ground but has never been able to raise his game above class 3. Both That applies to Dynaste, , Menorah and Al Ferof , who are all round about the ratings parameter. The last six Ryanair winners had run in the King George.

Could bounce back but hard to bet he will do so and win. Benefficient refused to be denied when he beat Dynaste in the Golden Miller a year ago today. Boston Bob prefers more cut in the ground but was winning the RSA when he fell at the last. Millions of words will be written about this encounter but all tipsters should be made to put their money where their mouth is, or at least admit to making a partisan choice, when only a decision on value is really valid.

There are spectacles and betting opportunities. I have to tip in both. This is a spectacle we hope. Come on A. Horses aged six to eight are and ratings between and are , with David Pipe, Venetia Williams and Nicky Henderson claiming Any help? So 13 wins in three days. Total profit 71 points. But — Guineas hero, Derby winners and Breeders Cup holder among them — these top Group horses are all sires of recent Triumph Hurdle winners.

The Press is raving Broughton but, on a line through Thorpe, Rutherglen has 12lb in hand of him. Calipto won easily at Newbury on a soundish surface from Activial, who waits for Aintree. Paul Nicholls fancies the Triumph cavalry charge will suit his horse. This is redemption day for Ditcheat, which must surely get something from Calipto, Lac Fontano and Silviniaco Conti but can you bet on it after their appalling week in the Cheltenham playing-field.

No swings, no roundabouts so far! Plinth has a touch of class if his hurdling has been improved. Stable form suggests that Calipto might place without winning. I could have covered the stakes with a saver on Calipto, just in case Ditcheat wakes up but, if I have place bets on my selections, I need just one of them in the frame for comprehensive insurance. A BHA ratings band of traps every one of the last eight winners.

Both owned, of course, by J P McManus. Mullins won this with Thousand Stars in , and Diakali, only around 7lb behind Jezki on Hattons Grace form, suggests that, if Arctic Fire is the main chance, he must be close to the top of the tree. Another who will appreciate top of the ground is Cheltenian, who had a sound prep for this in the BF Hurdle on heavy, a race the stable used for its two previous winners of this.

Better off with Alaivan on that run. Long time no see, and eight now, but very few miles on the clock, and well backed during the week. He has his ground if still good enough. Arctic Fire 8. A tough race for a novice, with all bar one winner in the decade having previously won over 2m 5f or more. But on collateral form through First Lieutenant he has Last Instalment right on top of him, if not in front.

Last Instalment has beaten him nine lengths and six lengths in two. Last Instalment met him in December and again on his comeback triumph in the Leopardstown Hennessy. Horses rarely return from injury and get back to the top but this one did, almost exactly where he left off, if the Lieutenant line is good and it certainly seems to be a path well trod by his adversary today, Bobs Worth.

We need to see resurgent stable form and some further improvement in the year-younger Silviniaco Conti, who seemed to be going well against Bobs Worth last year when he fell, but there has been no improvement. Conti remained fairly static on the whole of last year. Harbour Court needs to be fresh. Changing The Guard is Weather forecast: silver in the sunshine. Easily Pleased has been in the frame seven times out of eight, still standing, Able Deputy five out of six, and Kitegen used to have a sequence of seven including three times successful.

Trainer in hot form is Karl Burke still standing and Alan King was among the prizemoney at Cheltenham which puts Doynosaur and Tante Sissi bang in the picture, too. Will try to wait on the leader until the run-in. Easily Pleased is consistent, and Noche De Reyes consistently mediocre, so I give a chance to Doynosaur to bounce back at 9.

And it could be just as fast, with the ground drying out. Imperial Leader was 10 lengths off Fingal Bay in a Pertemps qualifier at Exeter but the winner won the final at Cheltenham. Golden Hoof will do better as a chsser. Empire Levant should improve for better ground. And the going may be the key to this. Imperial Leader also has that touch of class for this event, having tackled the likes of Fingal Bay and run up to Irish Saint this year.

The drying ground is a worry for a Flemensfirth but, when he beat Neptune second Ballyalton at Southwell as a four-year-old, the going was good to soft. Imperial Leader Bar de Ligne disposed of his field at Musselburgh, then comes out about the same horse as Ericht at the weights on their one-two on the same course when Ericht was prepping for Cheltenham started joint favourite this week. The Cockney Mackem is a dodgy jumper.

Notarfbad, The Romford Pele, Cloudy Bob and Elenika are all bridesmaids, with 16 out of 16 last four races each all in the frame without winning. Lost Legend But he has tried and failed in this several times and the sun does not shine for this horse, third in the Punchestown Grand National Trial, and he was easy to back this morning at David Pipe has skillfully and unerringly taken this prize three years running with horses rated , and , and his runners today, Junior and Goulanes, might look like handicap planning errors off and Because the Charlie Hall and Denman Chase winner Harry Topper, rated , stays in off 11st 12lb, Junior carries 10st 7lb and Goulanes 10st 3lb, with half the field pushed out of the handicap.

Whether he can do even half an Arkle in the race itself is largely down to the weather. He, too, is ground dependent, and swerved the sounder surface at Cheltenham for forecast-soft Uttoxeter. But that forecast is blowing in the wind. Goulanes also needs it to stay soft.

Emperors Choice, second in the Haydock Grand National trial, needs a bog. Like Fill The Power, fifth last year, he is sharply up in the weights. Alfie Spinner fifth in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham , is also a good stayer but equally difficult to win with and, like Red Rocco, 8lb out of the handicap.

After scoring at Chepstow in October, , he won again 15 days later, 9lb higher. After winning at Wetherby in November , he scored a month later 13lb higher. The ground may have gone against him. Added to his Cheltenham score, that gave Daqman four winning days out of the last five.

After the wet winter, few horses will be ready for the fray. The field had been running at 12, 13 three times and 14 in the last six years until it slumped to nine starters last season, and a combination of factors could see it in single figures again, not least that handicappers have less and less chance of winning it. Such as Chookie Royale and Captain Cat, both with decent AW form this winter, now fall between two race-planning stools.

If they run in the Group-3 Winter Derby, they must meet Pattern-winning horses at level weights, yes successful Group and Listed animals who give these handicappers little or no chance in the race. The facts laid out in the form of the last six Winter Derby winners suggest that you must wait and see which of the quality horses run. The quartet are back for more, so, too, third, Circumvent. Strong men wept, as Alice Treedown would say.

All seems to depend on their aptitude on the ground and the form of the yard: Robert Tyner Byerley Babe is currently four from eight, whereas Lucy Wadham is missing strike with seven in the frame without winning out of 10 still standing in the last fortnight.

Maybe her bridesmaid form figures are putting punters off but her price is the value for her first time at the trip. Urticaire 2. And I will try some recouping, too. Wrong Turn 4. And two things I should remember bear repeating here. First of all, never listen to anyone else, not even a trainer or jockey. Only believe what you see with your own eyes. But, second of all, as the man said, I was always told to learn from my mistakes and try to turn bitter defeat into the blessing of profit.

The confidence in Urticaire and the way she was beaten by Katie T suggest that Katie is on the upgrade, one to follow, and will get us our money back, and more, maybe even at the Punchestown Festival. Urticaire had beaten Katie T at Navan in December and was 3lb better off yesterday but Katie surged through smoothly and took the lead off Urticaire on the run-in. Improvement or what! On the same day, at the same meeting, Fashion Line was fourth in the Ladbrokes Lincoln Trial, making her run on the wide outside.

This column, which has Seabass ran a terrific race to finish third. He started favourite and there was plenty of time in the run-up to the National to trade all sorts of ways to help make the race a winning one, or at least a no-lose contest.

He finished second at Seabass 3. Seabass ran off when he was third, was 13th from 5lb higher last year and is dropped a pound from that for his third attempt in April. Raz De Maree, blinkered first time today, is one of the Aintree lightweights, 13lb lower, but has current form figures of P0P and will need to excel himself this afternoon. The Drinmore Chase and Galmoy Hurdle winner needs to bounce back but is strongly fancied to do so. Elliott implied in his pre-race comments to the Racing Post that Aintree will be the target for Toner another year, in which case this looks a fine qualifier to put on his CV.

Quality or quantity? Actually the answer is a bit of both. Both are great steps forward for the sport, as indeed has been the introduction of sectional timing. QUANTITY We have plenty of all-weather meetings , but all is not well at Wolverhampton, in particular, with the racing surface coming under heavy critisim and trainers and owners giving it a wide berth.

We need Wolverhampton to be working again — and it looks as though a total overhaul of the surface is needed. They are distancing themeselves from the surface as they claim their have been so many subsequent modifications. James Given is one of several trainers to have noticed a change.

For all the problems at the track with finances, stands etc one thing that was universally praised was the running surface. What was it? He was beaten a long way into second behind Lamps at Stratford last time out but unlike the majority of the field here is at least capable of further improvement. What will they run? It was her rightful race at her age but the same stable had Quevega defending her title. Only if Quevega was over the hill would Annie Power run.

With hindsight, Annie may have done better in the Champion Hurdle. Typical of the Press, the newspaper concerned never hired him again! So add it all up, you guys: spend more and win for sure! The market was value. You got on something at value. Now one at the front of the market has released others in the race at value. Well, if that was the horse you took an early position about, then good for you. My view is that it depends on the race. If you see a horse at odds on, early mouse or when the pre-race play begins, he will push out the offers on many of the other horses.

A place-only bet on one of them could reap more than a win bet on the hot favourite. Remember, the Placer has three chances in races of eight or more runners , whereas the hot Win horse has only one. The favourite is playing up in the stalls. Lay, man, lay. You know the one you were on this morning! You are not only happy to lay, you are happy to increase your stake on your original bet because his price is suddenly much better value.

You got You can now trade out on your morning bet with a lay, either to cover your stake or give you a win-win situation. If he wins, you win; if he loses, you win. Remember that one at Chepstow last week? A layer had those 15 running for him. My choice at 4. Churchtown Love threw her jockey at the start and they were called back to the tapes, with Churchtown Love easing only slightly when she had become a definite lay, yet still around Nothing else fancied; so take some Fizz and fast!

The starter lets them go again and a reluctant Churchtown Love barges her neighbour as the tapes go up. In the 8. This is what I said yesterday: The Mark Johnston trained Spin Artist looks a classic win, with place lay insurance proposition. Liberty Red is trading at 1. My focus now switches to Midnight Chorister who ran a solid race over 1m 4f in a Lingfield maiden last time out and although a maiden after six starts looks to have been kindly treated on his handicap debut.

Tigers In Red won on debut at Southwell but tries Polytrack for the first time tonight. Tree Of Grace won readily on debut at Lingfield last October and his having his first race since but preference has to be for Passing Star who quickened away nicely to win a course and distance handicap last time out. She was readily brushed aside here last time and the handicapper certainly seems to have been over cautious with her current mark.

Daqman checks it out and finds a lucky seven that are a close match to the form, fitness and chasing CV of recent winners. What should we expect? Dynaste is the official top rating for the race. Cloudy Lane Foxhunter sixth won this in , Baby Run the winner had unseated rider at Cheltenham, Trust Fund was only tenth, Christy Beamish had fallen.

Those are the only connections between winners of the two races in the decade. Any good? He is officially rated the best horse in the race and the drop in grade should prove pivotal. He ran well in a better class race over course and distance last time out and the return to claiming company can bring about another win for trainer Gary Moore.

This is tougher but he can go close. Ladies Dancing is the steamer after a spell on the flat. She picks up a 6lb penalty but can overcome that and the drop back to five furlongs. A shocking entry of just two runners and the favourite trading at 1. In the 6. She won with plenty in hand and has a fitness advantage over her chief rival Princess Spirit. He was last seen when running a cracker in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot when third to Olympic Glory and should have easily enough class for this field.

Why is he such a big price on a son of Oscar? Has Tony McCoy chosen the wrong one again? Smart Ruler form under McCoy in novice company has the good ground he needs today but has failed so far to make an impression in handicap company. Discovery Bay one run, one defeat with McCoy has also won a novice on good going but more recently ran a decent second in a class-2 handicap.

Not so long ago, they would have backed the McCoy connection blind this afternoon. But, in his own words, he has sometimes struggled for rides outside the McManus string. Bennys Well, on the other hand, is dropping back in trip, and found his punishment for winning at Sedgefield 3m 3f just too much for a CD repeat last time out. He is also up in the weights but has won a better class contest at Fakenham and might have been involved in the finish of the Eider Chase but for hitting the fifth last mighty hard.

Though yet to win a chase, this keen-going sort was a stone better hurdler than these. They meet another front-runner in Bincombe. Bincombe, heavily-penalized Clondaw Knight and Rocking Blue all have experience of handicap chases, with Bincombe looking well in at first glance, getting almost a stone from Oscatara, but raised 9lb for winning a three-horse chase and without winning partner, Richard Johnson, who is at Warwick.

The 5. In fact, the pair have already met twice. In November Smart Ruler was going well in a class 2 at Musselburgh when he stumbled three out; Discovery Bay was second. I think we should be told. We are also without adequate information on why Karazhan has had just one run in the last 14 months.

Robbie would have eaten these for breakfast at one time, and several others have chances on their best behavior. Smart Ruler is the wrong price on what we know. But I am also going to assume that Kudu Country will set off like a scalded cat as usual, so I took the Paul Hanagan has a full list of rides in Dubai tomorrow for his boss, Sheikh Hamdan, but could fly home in time to take his first ride of in England on the son of Oasis Dream.

After Ertijaal broke his maiden in June, he suffered a setback and had to miss a range of big two-year-old tests any one of Prix Morny, Champagne Stakes and Gimcrack entries. While Ertijaal stayed in his box, Toormore, trained by Richard Hannon, won first the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood then one of the very top juvenile heats, the prestigious National Stakes at The Curragh, and is as low as in a place for Newmarket with a BHA rating of He would meet mainly class-3 horses from the autumn-winter AW scene, the equivalent of a Premier League outfit playing MK Dons on a level playing field.

With a dozen Cheltenham pots not yet needing their first polish, Ireland is straight out of the turf-season gate at The Curragh on Sunday. Feature race of the day, the Irish Lincolnshire will predate and pre-empt the English version at Doncaster by six days. To name but a few, as they say. I would call them, in order, Mr Impeccable, Mr Cool.. Rain returns today and every sensible punters list of quality waited-with good-ground horses has to go on hold again.

Her sire gets quality sound-surface horses.. Ten jumpers and 17 Flat progeny have earned six-figure sums and more in prizemoney. Makadamia is regarded by connections as a cut above this field. Lord Navits needs the rain to come in quantity, as he tries to pag a punishing 11lb rise on top of the 7lb he got for completing a double. So it is that I arrived at Bullet Street, whose rating has been consistent, despite sound efforts on good ground.

Sonofagun 4. You have to decide, does a claimer tip the scales in this race or is it a sign of panic? Not for me. Last Shot has won round here, and Venetia Williams does well on the course, but he is also high in the handicap. Changing The Guard has winning form only on top of the ground and gives weight away to all in this, but Highway Code went nine consecutive races in the frame before Cheltenham and Josh Moore was aboard when he won impressively over further at Newbury.

The days live outsider at Shumthing wrong shumwhere. CHANGE 3 Churchtown Love threw her jockey at the start and they were called back to the tapes, with Churchtown Love easing only slightly when she had become a definite lay, yet still around Ginger Fizz won.

If the form book is to be believed, we could claim we were unlucky with Makadama, who seemed to be cruising two out. No such luck. He was 8. The step up in trip, so jumping at a slower pace, might help Royal Guardsman, who is rarely fluent.

It all seems to add up to a golden opportunity first time over fences in England, straight into a handicap, for French-chase winner Ziga Boy, who looked a powerful individual when launched over here in a hurdles race. I took 8. Tasty at 7. Chilworth Icon and Heavy Metal are potential cats among these pigeons: both were Group-winning two-year-olds who lost their way at three but reappear gelded.

Two win bets and a place at Newbury could take him to 40 up in his Pricewise challenge over jumps. Even Stevens from the 1 stall has been dueling all year with Silken Express, who is up Addictive Dream and Swiss Cross held and getting weight in the adjacent stall 2.

They should give Ladies Are Forever a good tow and bring her stamina into play. I took 5. Alutiq, overfaced in the pattern last year, came back to form when winning a Winners Are Welcome At Betdaq conditions race at Kempton in January but fillies have won the Cup only once in a decade.

Maiden lightweights have won this but ratings buffs will be astonished if she can score off a massive , at least two stone more than any maiden has carried to victory before. You can usually ignore mares over the age of six, with none able to reach the first two in nine seasons. She has the sound surface she needs today, but was easy to back this morning at Westerner, whose progeny perform so well on top of the ground, and had a fine Cheltenham with Western Warhorse and Deputy Dan, has a femme fatale here in Run Ructions Run.

Midnight Cataria looked big at Niceonefrankie is hard to win with, still 7lb higher than his last success, and this is a mile further than his longest winning race at this level. Has been brought back steadily for this. Storm Survivor cannot be ignored, and he will appreciate the drying ground, but his total absence of form on the top tracks is a worry in this company.

He has scored just the once, suggesting he is very one paced. The dark horse of the race is Vodkato huge at He had winners in both races at and The jumps season ends Daqman 39, Pricewise The stablemate, Alainn, is from a sprinting family and traces back to the lightning-fast Dayjur. Only 61 to come! Interesting that the leading trainer in the race, Dermot Weld two wins , has put blinkers on the grey Go For Goal.

My pick is a 6. He is also the sire of Chapter Seven in the next, the Irish Lincolnshire. Three times since , when the ground has been heavy, as today, high numbers have swamped the field. In , when 24 ran, the result by draw was 19, 25, 22, 26, 21, In 26 ran , it was stalls 27, 26, 5, 17, 16, And last year 20 ran , it was 15, 3, 12, 14, 19, He won the 7f race on this card now the Johnny Murtagh three years ago.

However, the trainer, four times a winner of this, reckons better ground is needed. High in the weights but the compensation of stall Three times a CD winner, has been out in Dubai for the winter. Demands respect as Irish Cambridgeshire runner-up, but prefers better ground. The hood could transform Man Of Erin stall 21 but it will have to.

Chapter Seven was only a length off the winner, giving a stone, in the Dubai Duty Free 1m 2f in September and backed ante-post for the Cambridgeshire. But he swerved the big handicap and instead, with Spencer up, was again beaten around a length in the Group-3 Darley Stakes behind Sandown Mile Group 2 runner-up Highland Knight.

The English raider, Lord Aeryn stall 13 , is down in the weights and has handled soft ground but has winning form only on a sound surface. Pivotals love soft ground but his son, Shipyard 19 , close up in the market this morning, is hard to assess after one handicap, though the horses around him that day have done nothing. Jamie Spencer stays on board after three runs on a sound surface at Meydan.

The draw is not such a worry, since Chapter Seven gets behind, so expect him to be brought with a long run through tiring horses. Potentially a bigger price in running. The only one for money this morning, Stuccodor 6. Does not seem ground dependent, and the stable is four from seven, including a fine performance for me with Roalco De Farges yesterday, same connections as my Grand National hope, Balthazar King.

Early-bird horses and trainers win year on year. Make yourself a list of stables which are successful in March-April-May, and log the horses that score when fresh. The Fahey yard has struck with such outsiders that its level-stakes profit was points to a single point staked on each April runner over the last five years.

Mark Johnston has had more than March-April winners in the five years. And Richard Hannon scored that many in May alone. Good Speech was running in class 3 and 4 last backend but back him, if returned to class 5 form-figures That means he needs to shed a couple of pounds. Heeraat is ultra-game and genuine. Stepped up from class-3 handicaps to Group-3 success.

Favourite track Newbury, so look out for him at the Greenham meeting. Tremendous stuff. Acts on any going. Only six starts since his debut and can improve again. Has had a run back on Polytrack. Probably needs to lose a few pounds. Improved 25lb to run in the Abbaye at the backend but the ground was against her. Likes straight track Sandown, Newmarket.

The incredible Daqman yesterday landed his eighth bet from three winning days in a row through Bull And Bush WON , and his outsider of the day missed strike by a neck, Tara Tavey 2nd Now check these colts and fillies out in the trials, and look for his Classic conclusions in a revised Ten at the end of April. Just the sound of that mating has the mental betting-tills going ching-ching! Goes straight to the 2, Guineas, then the Derby. Rail Links like a firm surface and Selkirks love some cut so the jury is out on going preference.

Ran up to Toormore on the debut last season but this Oasis Dream colt looks Group 3 at best, albeit a potential top earner at 6f and 7f. Impressive enough at Lingfield to earn offers of Though his two-year-old career, capped by success in the Racing Post trophy, was on an easy surface, his action suggests that he is sure to enjoy fast ground.

Yet this highly regarded sort is related to winners on the Flat at Listed and Group level up to 1m 4f and over hurdles up to 2m 3f. Lat Hawill has a Greenham trial date at Newbury when connections hope he will belie his Speed allied to such prospective stamina would make this colt formidable. The runner-up in his Vintage Stakes win went on to take the Champagne Stakes and the Breeders Cup Juvenile, and the one that chased him home in the National Stakes had taken a prestigious juveniles double in Ireland, the Railway and the Phoenix.

Toormore preps for Newmarket in the Craven Stakes. Offers of The others are all from the second-season Classic generation. The French scene was buzzing with talk of a new star when she took the Prix Diane but became international news when the filly she beat that day went on to take the Irish Oaks. Giles Bravery has the worst figures with 70 losers in 12 years. Colin Teague and Mandy Rowland are half as bad, and Michael Chapman has gone a mere days without winning on the course.

It leaves me fancying Imaginary Diva huge at 8.

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Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. Yet, claimed off, he will line up only 4lb higher than for the first of the February treble, and will receive weight from all bar the bottom horse. Sulis Minerva the Roman name for Bath is also a 6f mare. Hillybilly Boy nothing to sing about last won a seller. But, though she is top weight and favourite this morning 4.

She was a bit fresh after four months off, otherwise might have turned her neck defeat at Kempton recently into victory. Both saddle horses running into form, and the 7. A final test for class in this race would inevitably point to Josses Hill, second in the Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle and with a plethora of bookmakers. But then, 13 of the last 14 winners had a rating of or more and nine of the last 10 had won or been placed at the Cheltenham Festival before.

Only one winner has broken through the 11st barrier, and the winning-ratings parameter has a 10st 11lb maximum this year. Four of the last five winners had been dropped between 5lb and 10lb in the ratings in the lead up to this. Just two runs this year, seventh in the Hennessy and fifth in the Grand National trial. Our Father is set to carry 10st 10lb. Modern champions with more than two wins in the race started their sequence at age seven, including Hurricane Fly himself.

The only seven-year-old in the race is My Tent Or Yours. His trainer, Nicky Henderson, had a sequence winner See You Then and the stable came good again with two six-year-olds, Punjabi and Binocular, in the modern era. He has Shutthefrontdoor and Holywell among the fancied horses, and a six-year-old like the favourite Foxrock has won only once since He was pulled up last time out but had also run badly before Perth.

The Clyda Rover could bounce back but Flying Award has earned his wings more than once for this sort of event and 6. Apologies NEW!!! Meanwhile, he lays bare the stats and facts to help you decide for yourself where to risk your money at the four-day festival.

Out goes Rathvinden, Sea Lord and Upazo, leaving a short-list of Recognise him? But, if you take out those with fewer than three chase starts and without a win or a place in a Graded race, you are left with a BETDAQ offers of 8. Watch out for the selections of these two champion handlers. Those stats suggest that you look no further than Sire De Grugy 3. But the stats say you must have a horse aged eight to 12, off 10st 9lb or less 6 out of 8 , which is a strong pointer to one horse, Any Curerency, a narrow second in a similar CD x-country in December, and third in November.

On both occasions, the ground was riding good. Only ninth in this championship last season, Any Currency is 9. This column is already on Balthazar King at 7. Sudden Wish is a stand-out in the grade, with nearest market rivals Addikt, Polydamus and My Renaissance all having to resort to class 7 to get a win or a place.

Ryan Moore back in the saddle. Much more likely to clear up is Andrew Balding with Bishop Of Ruscombe, his charges improving no end after just one run. Another scopey individual is Dynamic Ranger. Not yet in play then, but it could be different tonight. Five-year-olds from the top end of the handicap have won both runnings so far and I remember this column being on Moonday Sun a good second at a big price over a mile at Lingfield. In the Lincoln? Rebellious Guest was unable to carry the penalty for beating Moonday Sun and he stays on that mark today, also drawn high.

The Winter Derby awaits. Epic Battle has looked a good stone short of class 2 at Wolver the last twice but, as a four-year-old from a top yard, improvement can be expected. Bancnuanaheireann may prefer his wide stall in Best guess for me today is the unexposed Ansaab 9 races in his life , a winner on Polytrack at Dundalk, who caught the eye, running on second here at Kempton over a mile a month back.

Hope he stays sound for this. The usual suspects for a lay are those up in the ratings. Seven of them have scored in a higher grade. Seven of them have already won at Kempton. But is it that open? The prize has gone to four-year-olds in every one of its three years in existence, all three from stalls His return to a mile is significant after he dropped out in the last furlong over 1m 2f when badly drawn here last time.

Daqman leads 25 returns to 9. Will the half-dozen plus-rated horses this year change all that? Historically not; last year those rated Dynaste , and were second, fifth and sixth, and the year before 8th , PU and 3rd were thrashed by the rated Sir Des Champs.

Taquin De Seuil punters could get 8. This one. Those two were rated 20lb apart off and ; one came to the race with form figures 00P0, the other ; one had had 25 hurdles runs, one only six. What chance have we got! Well, the ratings lore of the race seems to be: carries 10st 8lb to 11st 7lb six out of eight ; 35 horses off or more have all failed in the last 13 years.

Fingal Bay and Champagne West, two of the four market leaders with bookmakers, get black marks, since they are racing off and And, at , they are nine points lower than the consensus about a horse called Milan Bound. Trained by? Thomas Wild was a lucky winner at Exeter last time out when the leader baulked at the paddock entrance, and was well held when he fell behind Flying Award early last season.

I shall lay Benbens at 1. Milans Well is two from two at Wincanton, both between January and April last year, but in the first of them two of his three rivals fell or unseated at two of the last three fences, and there was more mayhem in the second one. The Limpley Stoke, Bath, stable of Neil Mulholland Rossa Parks is in winning form and Victor Dartnall Tolkeins Tango is doing well right now, if only he had a better record at Wincanton won nothing for nearly two years with 30 starters.

Daqman currently leads Pricewise 25 returns to 9. The winning-ratings band is very narrow: here are the last eight winners by official rating: , , , , , , and Nine out of 10 were aged seven, eight or nine, and five had had eight or nine steeplechase starts. Only Bobs Worth fits all these stats as the market stands now. But the turnkey stat is that there has been no success from 11st or above in 14 seasons and in 21 of the last 25 years.

Recent form means he is 8. In truth, both horse and rider will have been intensively trained for this pre-Cheltenham gold cup for the military, none more so than Polisky, whose trainer Paul Nicholls is with his runners in this. Bradley had six races inside a year in Grade-3 company but has been a flatterer and has done no better dropped in class since November. However, Solix, who has shown some class as a runner in the Coral Cup and the Jewson at Cheltenham in the past, and in his more recent fifth in the Tommy Whittle and fourth in the Great Yorkshire, has an attribute which often wins these races.

He can go with the pace. Hold-up horses tend to get too far out of their ground under amateur riders. At the double, then, captain! Solix, at eight, has a touch of class and the potential to improve. Good chance for Stormin Exit. Samson Collonges — at 8. Now read on. You need to be with the big yards, which have quality in depth to choose from. David Pipe and Paul Nicholls are the only trainers represented today with horses near the top of the markets for the big novice hurdles at Cheltenham And only Caesar Milan behind Champagne West and Gone Too Far rear view of Vaniteux of this final field have taken on big-time Cheltenham contenders.

Gone Too Far needs the ground to dry out. I have to report that the galloping major, who was following in the illustrious footsteps of Jack Colling at the fabulous Berkshire base, never came to tea at Troy House, the home I bought on the proceeds of my hefty punt. Hasopop, who kept Listed and Group company on turf, had a promising recent run back at Lingfield. Another Group performer, Highland Knight, usually needs a couple of runs, and Andrew Balding may do better with Listed placed Intransigent, just returned from campaigning in Dubai.

Bertiewhittle, Listed second at Kempton in November, and also back from Dubai to run a close third at Lingfield a fortnight ago. He is one of those much-loved horses who is forgiven anything by Joe Punter. And some. Only one horse drawn lower than six has won in 10 years: gates 9 to 13 are six from Only four successful in those 31 seasons have been older than seven. Back to the end of the card please, you breeders! His column is on Rocky twice, at To name but a few, as they say!

Folsom Blues was in his element when winning the Punchestown Grand National Trial 3m 4f a year or so back, and faced the very smart Mozoltov on his run back over a mile shorter. I think his training trajectory is to peak for the Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse over Easter but, with plenty of use made of him, could be a threat to Los Amigos today.

Barring mishap today, I shall continue to back them both, with Punchestown and Fairyhouse in mind if, as expected, Goonyella leaves the big Irish staying prizes to them and goes to Aintree. Target points profit at Cheltenham. This is in keeping with a general raising of stakes to win at big meetings. Bankers were lagging behind. He gave six in a row in each of and and four in His profit at 10 points a lay was points.

How many doubles that would have made! Daqman leads 25 returns to Get your Daq up! You need a three-time winner, with big-field success, Graded-race quality and a bumper background. Say no more! The snag with Irving is that he lacks the street cred of a big-field success, unless you count a lowly runner classnovice at Taunton.

He has never raced in a bumper and, as a flat-track winner Ascot, Kempton , his turn will come at Aintree. He is behind Vautour on a line through Lieutenant Colonel, who swerves a rematch with the Mullins boys, but he beat Western Boy won only twice a long way in a bumper. I prefer Josses Hill to stablemate Vaniteux. The enigma of the race is The Liquidator, Champion Bumper fourth last season and winner of the CD trial for this in November but a flop in the Tolworth.

Has David Pipe got him back? My main home defender is Josses Hill, Now add: 2pts win at Apart from an ordinary year for the race in the s, only Sir Ken has gone on to win an Arkle at the age of nine since it began as the Cotswold Chase in You could equally say that Champagne Fever has had a raw deal from the handicapper as to the merits of his Supreme Novice Hurdle success.

Though he beat My Tent Or Yours currently on and Jezki , he remains on over hurdles and over fences. If so then the on at Leopardstown about Champagne Fever, winner of the Champion Bumper on good ground and of the Supreme Novice on soft, was madness. In this case, 13 of the last 14 winners came from below 11st. I also spotted in my stats research that four of the last five winners had been dropped between 5lb and 10lb in the ratings. Tour Des Champs is one today, 10lb lower than when he ran in this last year, and an incredible 27lb better off with the winner, Golden Chieftain.

That all smacks of improvement. If anything is unexposed to the handicapper, that animal is going to be seven or eight and lightly raced. Hurricane Fly has been one of the hurdling greats with 19 Grade-1 wins but beating the same horses over and again does not put him in the same league as a Hattons Grace or a Sea Pigeon , who both won it at the age of Cailin Annamh and Highland Retreat prefer to go right-handed.

Cockney Sparrow, big and raw last year, got within three lengths of My Tent Or Yours in November and was only two lengths down to Annie Power at Doncaster when she fell. This extra trip should suit, distance wise and make jumping easier. Quevega is said to have had a better home prep this year than ever, according to Willie Mullins. Cockney Sparrow is just now making up into a real racemare, and is massive at And the place bet will return three times the win price about Quevega.

His two last winners scored off ratings of and , and this level was maintained through with , and horses winning it. Jonjo seems wide awake to the changes, saddling Shutthefrontdoor, an Accordion stamina index Firm Order and Midnight Prayer have bags of stamina in the pedigree.

Herdsman and Suntiep are improving but seem to need the mud. According To Trev ran a stinker in the Great Yorkshire but is another Accordion, likes Cheltenham, and handles top of the ground. I shall take an improver who stays until the mother-in-law has run out of breath. Stamina is an issue for Ahyaknowyerself, Pendra and Tony Star. The little-known northern nine-year-old has been runner-up this year, first to Western Warhorse, then to Holywell, both big winners on the opening day of Cheltenham.

A blushing handicapper must have his rating wrong by around 20lb! But you have to make two assumptions here. Son of the superb racemare Lady Cricket, he is by the same sire as Annie Power. Those who back Westerners on good ground were laughing at My outsider to get into the three is Lieutenant Colonel, A good second to Vautour in December. The race should play to the strengths of Lieutenant Colonel, unexposed at the trip.

Ballycasey has not passed his exams. Not so, Ballycasey. And the questions we seek to answer — does Paul Nichols have a Denman and does Willie Mullins have a Cooldine ? Is this a case of play it again, Sam? Not much between him and Sam Winner on Newbury form but that was on heavy ground. If in doubt in these championship events, look for a Presenting or an Oscar. With the Cheltenham hill in mind, I checked out the videos on this field, and it was an eye-opener to see that, in both races he won, Morning Assembly was overtaken but fought back to win.

Sam Winner Both love Cheltenham. This is not a Master Minded year or a Sprinter Sacre procession , and Sizing Europe, Somersby and Wishfull Thinking, who were around in those days, all have to do a Moscow Flyer and win for the double-figure-age group. I doubt they are up to it. In that case 6. Balthazar King has form at Cheltenham on good ground, good-to-soft at worse, since April of , still standing.

But the stats say you need a horse off 10st 9lb or less 6 out of 8 , which is a strong pointer to Any Currency, a narrow second in a similar CD x-country in December, and third in November. This one has had twice , , , and scorers in the last decade. Irish-breds have won 17 out of 21, with 16 of them trained in Ireland. But six of the last eight winners have started , , , , and and you are looking for one with only two or three previous starts, never out of the first two.

And painful on the wallet not to get a run from Captain Conan in the Champion Stakes yesterday. Two title bouts, two technical knockouts! Winners of that race are always horses to follow. Platinum to her gold, I think. This race in his honour produced Sir Des Champs in but is notable for three consecutive defeats by the highest-rated equine celebs in the race: Dynaste was second last year, Peddlers Cross was last to finish the year before, and the first JLT saw Wishfull Thinking also stuffed.

What beat them? The younger generation. They make up half the field today and one of them may have the X-factor over the older market leaders like Felix Yonger and Oscar Whisky, who have both come late to jumping fences. Quite the opposite applies to Willie Mullins. He has great scope.. Yes twice over. So I can have 2. That, in a nutshell, is why winners of the heats lose out in the final. The exceptions are the odd-man-out qualifier winner, Ballyfitz , and the following year Kayf Aramis.

The one among the top bunch who has those Pertemps winning form-figures is Trustan Times. Once upon a Trustan Times, he beat Holywell in a Grade 3, giving him 12lb. On the Bridge will love the ground but has never been able to raise his game above class 3. Both That applies to Dynaste, , Menorah and Al Ferof , who are all round about the ratings parameter.

The last six Ryanair winners had run in the King George. Could bounce back but hard to bet he will do so and win. Benefficient refused to be denied when he beat Dynaste in the Golden Miller a year ago today. Boston Bob prefers more cut in the ground but was winning the RSA when he fell at the last. Millions of words will be written about this encounter but all tipsters should be made to put their money where their mouth is, or at least admit to making a partisan choice, when only a decision on value is really valid.

There are spectacles and betting opportunities. I have to tip in both. This is a spectacle we hope. Come on A. Horses aged six to eight are and ratings between and are , with David Pipe, Venetia Williams and Nicky Henderson claiming Any help? So 13 wins in three days. Total profit 71 points. But — Guineas hero, Derby winners and Breeders Cup holder among them — these top Group horses are all sires of recent Triumph Hurdle winners.

The Press is raving Broughton but, on a line through Thorpe, Rutherglen has 12lb in hand of him. Calipto won easily at Newbury on a soundish surface from Activial, who waits for Aintree. Paul Nicholls fancies the Triumph cavalry charge will suit his horse. This is redemption day for Ditcheat, which must surely get something from Calipto, Lac Fontano and Silviniaco Conti but can you bet on it after their appalling week in the Cheltenham playing-field.

No swings, no roundabouts so far! Plinth has a touch of class if his hurdling has been improved. Stable form suggests that Calipto might place without winning. I could have covered the stakes with a saver on Calipto, just in case Ditcheat wakes up but, if I have place bets on my selections, I need just one of them in the frame for comprehensive insurance. A BHA ratings band of traps every one of the last eight winners.

Both owned, of course, by J P McManus. Mullins won this with Thousand Stars in , and Diakali, only around 7lb behind Jezki on Hattons Grace form, suggests that, if Arctic Fire is the main chance, he must be close to the top of the tree. Another who will appreciate top of the ground is Cheltenian, who had a sound prep for this in the BF Hurdle on heavy, a race the stable used for its two previous winners of this.

Better off with Alaivan on that run. Long time no see, and eight now, but very few miles on the clock, and well backed during the week. He has his ground if still good enough. Arctic Fire 8. A tough race for a novice, with all bar one winner in the decade having previously won over 2m 5f or more. But on collateral form through First Lieutenant he has Last Instalment right on top of him, if not in front.

Last Instalment has beaten him nine lengths and six lengths in two. Last Instalment met him in December and again on his comeback triumph in the Leopardstown Hennessy. Horses rarely return from injury and get back to the top but this one did, almost exactly where he left off, if the Lieutenant line is good and it certainly seems to be a path well trod by his adversary today, Bobs Worth.

We need to see resurgent stable form and some further improvement in the year-younger Silviniaco Conti, who seemed to be going well against Bobs Worth last year when he fell, but there has been no improvement. Conti remained fairly static on the whole of last year. Harbour Court needs to be fresh. Changing The Guard is Weather forecast: silver in the sunshine. Easily Pleased has been in the frame seven times out of eight, still standing, Able Deputy five out of six, and Kitegen used to have a sequence of seven including three times successful.

Trainer in hot form is Karl Burke still standing and Alan King was among the prizemoney at Cheltenham which puts Doynosaur and Tante Sissi bang in the picture, too. Will try to wait on the leader until the run-in. Easily Pleased is consistent, and Noche De Reyes consistently mediocre, so I give a chance to Doynosaur to bounce back at 9. And it could be just as fast, with the ground drying out.

Imperial Leader was 10 lengths off Fingal Bay in a Pertemps qualifier at Exeter but the winner won the final at Cheltenham. Golden Hoof will do better as a chsser. Empire Levant should improve for better ground. And the going may be the key to this. Imperial Leader also has that touch of class for this event, having tackled the likes of Fingal Bay and run up to Irish Saint this year.

The drying ground is a worry for a Flemensfirth but, when he beat Neptune second Ballyalton at Southwell as a four-year-old, the going was good to soft. Imperial Leader Bar de Ligne disposed of his field at Musselburgh, then comes out about the same horse as Ericht at the weights on their one-two on the same course when Ericht was prepping for Cheltenham started joint favourite this week.

The Cockney Mackem is a dodgy jumper. Notarfbad, The Romford Pele, Cloudy Bob and Elenika are all bridesmaids, with 16 out of 16 last four races each all in the frame without winning. Lost Legend But he has tried and failed in this several times and the sun does not shine for this horse, third in the Punchestown Grand National Trial, and he was easy to back this morning at David Pipe has skillfully and unerringly taken this prize three years running with horses rated , and , and his runners today, Junior and Goulanes, might look like handicap planning errors off and Because the Charlie Hall and Denman Chase winner Harry Topper, rated , stays in off 11st 12lb, Junior carries 10st 7lb and Goulanes 10st 3lb, with half the field pushed out of the handicap.

Whether he can do even half an Arkle in the race itself is largely down to the weather. He, too, is ground dependent, and swerved the sounder surface at Cheltenham for forecast-soft Uttoxeter. But that forecast is blowing in the wind. Goulanes also needs it to stay soft. Emperors Choice, second in the Haydock Grand National trial, needs a bog.

Like Fill The Power, fifth last year, he is sharply up in the weights. Alfie Spinner fifth in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham , is also a good stayer but equally difficult to win with and, like Red Rocco, 8lb out of the handicap. After scoring at Chepstow in October, , he won again 15 days later, 9lb higher. After winning at Wetherby in November , he scored a month later 13lb higher. The ground may have gone against him. Added to his Cheltenham score, that gave Daqman four winning days out of the last five.

After the wet winter, few horses will be ready for the fray. The field had been running at 12, 13 three times and 14 in the last six years until it slumped to nine starters last season, and a combination of factors could see it in single figures again, not least that handicappers have less and less chance of winning it. Such as Chookie Royale and Captain Cat, both with decent AW form this winter, now fall between two race-planning stools.

If they run in the Group-3 Winter Derby, they must meet Pattern-winning horses at level weights, yes successful Group and Listed animals who give these handicappers little or no chance in the race. The facts laid out in the form of the last six Winter Derby winners suggest that you must wait and see which of the quality horses run. The quartet are back for more, so, too, third, Circumvent.

Strong men wept, as Alice Treedown would say. All seems to depend on their aptitude on the ground and the form of the yard: Robert Tyner Byerley Babe is currently four from eight, whereas Lucy Wadham is missing strike with seven in the frame without winning out of 10 still standing in the last fortnight. Maybe her bridesmaid form figures are putting punters off but her price is the value for her first time at the trip. Urticaire 2. And I will try some recouping, too. Wrong Turn 4. And two things I should remember bear repeating here.

First of all, never listen to anyone else, not even a trainer or jockey. Only believe what you see with your own eyes. But, second of all, as the man said, I was always told to learn from my mistakes and try to turn bitter defeat into the blessing of profit. The confidence in Urticaire and the way she was beaten by Katie T suggest that Katie is on the upgrade, one to follow, and will get us our money back, and more, maybe even at the Punchestown Festival.

Urticaire had beaten Katie T at Navan in December and was 3lb better off yesterday but Katie surged through smoothly and took the lead off Urticaire on the run-in. Improvement or what! On the same day, at the same meeting, Fashion Line was fourth in the Ladbrokes Lincoln Trial, making her run on the wide outside.

This column, which has Seabass ran a terrific race to finish third. He started favourite and there was plenty of time in the run-up to the National to trade all sorts of ways to help make the race a winning one, or at least a no-lose contest. He finished second at Seabass 3. Seabass ran off when he was third, was 13th from 5lb higher last year and is dropped a pound from that for his third attempt in April.

Raz De Maree, blinkered first time today, is one of the Aintree lightweights, 13lb lower, but has current form figures of P0P and will need to excel himself this afternoon. The Drinmore Chase and Galmoy Hurdle winner needs to bounce back but is strongly fancied to do so. Elliott implied in his pre-race comments to the Racing Post that Aintree will be the target for Toner another year, in which case this looks a fine qualifier to put on his CV. Quality or quantity? Actually the answer is a bit of both.

Both are great steps forward for the sport, as indeed has been the introduction of sectional timing. QUANTITY We have plenty of all-weather meetings , but all is not well at Wolverhampton, in particular, with the racing surface coming under heavy critisim and trainers and owners giving it a wide berth.

We need Wolverhampton to be working again — and it looks as though a total overhaul of the surface is needed. They are distancing themeselves from the surface as they claim their have been so many subsequent modifications. James Given is one of several trainers to have noticed a change. For all the problems at the track with finances, stands etc one thing that was universally praised was the running surface.

What was it? He was beaten a long way into second behind Lamps at Stratford last time out but unlike the majority of the field here is at least capable of further improvement. What will they run? It was her rightful race at her age but the same stable had Quevega defending her title. Only if Quevega was over the hill would Annie Power run. With hindsight, Annie may have done better in the Champion Hurdle. Typical of the Press, the newspaper concerned never hired him again!

So add it all up, you guys: spend more and win for sure! The market was value. You got on something at value. Now one at the front of the market has released others in the race at value. Well, if that was the horse you took an early position about, then good for you.

My view is that it depends on the race. If you see a horse at odds on, early mouse or when the pre-race play begins, he will push out the offers on many of the other horses. A place-only bet on one of them could reap more than a win bet on the hot favourite. Remember, the Placer has three chances in races of eight or more runners , whereas the hot Win horse has only one.

The favourite is playing up in the stalls. Lay, man, lay. You know the one you were on this morning! You are not only happy to lay, you are happy to increase your stake on your original bet because his price is suddenly much better value. You got You can now trade out on your morning bet with a lay, either to cover your stake or give you a win-win situation.

If he wins, you win; if he loses, you win. Remember that one at Chepstow last week? A layer had those 15 running for him. My choice at 4. Churchtown Love threw her jockey at the start and they were called back to the tapes, with Churchtown Love easing only slightly when she had become a definite lay, yet still around Nothing else fancied; so take some Fizz and fast!

The starter lets them go again and a reluctant Churchtown Love barges her neighbour as the tapes go up. In the 8. This is what I said yesterday: The Mark Johnston trained Spin Artist looks a classic win, with place lay insurance proposition. Liberty Red is trading at 1. My focus now switches to Midnight Chorister who ran a solid race over 1m 4f in a Lingfield maiden last time out and although a maiden after six starts looks to have been kindly treated on his handicap debut.

Tigers In Red won on debut at Southwell but tries Polytrack for the first time tonight. Tree Of Grace won readily on debut at Lingfield last October and his having his first race since but preference has to be for Passing Star who quickened away nicely to win a course and distance handicap last time out. She was readily brushed aside here last time and the handicapper certainly seems to have been over cautious with her current mark.

Daqman checks it out and finds a lucky seven that are a close match to the form, fitness and chasing CV of recent winners. What should we expect? Dynaste is the official top rating for the race. Cloudy Lane Foxhunter sixth won this in , Baby Run the winner had unseated rider at Cheltenham, Trust Fund was only tenth, Christy Beamish had fallen. Those are the only connections between winners of the two races in the decade.

Any good? He is officially rated the best horse in the race and the drop in grade should prove pivotal. He ran well in a better class race over course and distance last time out and the return to claiming company can bring about another win for trainer Gary Moore.

This is tougher but he can go close. Ladies Dancing is the steamer after a spell on the flat. She picks up a 6lb penalty but can overcome that and the drop back to five furlongs. A shocking entry of just two runners and the favourite trading at 1. In the 6. She won with plenty in hand and has a fitness advantage over her chief rival Princess Spirit. He was last seen when running a cracker in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot when third to Olympic Glory and should have easily enough class for this field.

Why is he such a big price on a son of Oscar? Has Tony McCoy chosen the wrong one again? Smart Ruler form under McCoy in novice company has the good ground he needs today but has failed so far to make an impression in handicap company. Discovery Bay one run, one defeat with McCoy has also won a novice on good going but more recently ran a decent second in a class-2 handicap.

Not so long ago, they would have backed the McCoy connection blind this afternoon. But, in his own words, he has sometimes struggled for rides outside the McManus string. Bennys Well, on the other hand, is dropping back in trip, and found his punishment for winning at Sedgefield 3m 3f just too much for a CD repeat last time out.

He is also up in the weights but has won a better class contest at Fakenham and might have been involved in the finish of the Eider Chase but for hitting the fifth last mighty hard. Though yet to win a chase, this keen-going sort was a stone better hurdler than these.

They meet another front-runner in Bincombe. Bincombe, heavily-penalized Clondaw Knight and Rocking Blue all have experience of handicap chases, with Bincombe looking well in at first glance, getting almost a stone from Oscatara, but raised 9lb for winning a three-horse chase and without winning partner, Richard Johnson, who is at Warwick.

The 5. In fact, the pair have already met twice. In November Smart Ruler was going well in a class 2 at Musselburgh when he stumbled three out; Discovery Bay was second. I think we should be told. We are also without adequate information on why Karazhan has had just one run in the last 14 months.

Robbie would have eaten these for breakfast at one time, and several others have chances on their best behavior. Smart Ruler is the wrong price on what we know. But I am also going to assume that Kudu Country will set off like a scalded cat as usual, so I took the Paul Hanagan has a full list of rides in Dubai tomorrow for his boss, Sheikh Hamdan, but could fly home in time to take his first ride of in England on the son of Oasis Dream.

After Ertijaal broke his maiden in June, he suffered a setback and had to miss a range of big two-year-old tests any one of Prix Morny, Champagne Stakes and Gimcrack entries. While Ertijaal stayed in his box, Toormore, trained by Richard Hannon, won first the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood then one of the very top juvenile heats, the prestigious National Stakes at The Curragh, and is as low as in a place for Newmarket with a BHA rating of He would meet mainly class-3 horses from the autumn-winter AW scene, the equivalent of a Premier League outfit playing MK Dons on a level playing field.

With a dozen Cheltenham pots not yet needing their first polish, Ireland is straight out of the turf-season gate at The Curragh on Sunday. Feature race of the day, the Irish Lincolnshire will predate and pre-empt the English version at Doncaster by six days.

To name but a few, as they say. I would call them, in order, Mr Impeccable, Mr Cool.. Rain returns today and every sensible punters list of quality waited-with good-ground horses has to go on hold again. Her sire gets quality sound-surface horses.. Ten jumpers and 17 Flat progeny have earned six-figure sums and more in prizemoney. Makadamia is regarded by connections as a cut above this field. Lord Navits needs the rain to come in quantity, as he tries to pag a punishing 11lb rise on top of the 7lb he got for completing a double.

So it is that I arrived at Bullet Street, whose rating has been consistent, despite sound efforts on good ground. Sonofagun 4. You have to decide, does a claimer tip the scales in this race or is it a sign of panic? Not for me. Last Shot has won round here, and Venetia Williams does well on the course, but he is also high in the handicap. Changing The Guard has winning form only on top of the ground and gives weight away to all in this, but Highway Code went nine consecutive races in the frame before Cheltenham and Josh Moore was aboard when he won impressively over further at Newbury.

The days live outsider at Shumthing wrong shumwhere. CHANGE 3 Churchtown Love threw her jockey at the start and they were called back to the tapes, with Churchtown Love easing only slightly when she had become a definite lay, yet still around Ginger Fizz won. If the form book is to be believed, we could claim we were unlucky with Makadama, who seemed to be cruising two out.

No such luck. He was 8. The step up in trip, so jumping at a slower pace, might help Royal Guardsman, who is rarely fluent. It all seems to add up to a golden opportunity first time over fences in England, straight into a handicap, for French-chase winner Ziga Boy, who looked a powerful individual when launched over here in a hurdles race.

I took 8. Tasty at 7. Chilworth Icon and Heavy Metal are potential cats among these pigeons: both were Group-winning two-year-olds who lost their way at three but reappear gelded. Two win bets and a place at Newbury could take him to 40 up in his Pricewise challenge over jumps. Even Stevens from the 1 stall has been dueling all year with Silken Express, who is up Addictive Dream and Swiss Cross held and getting weight in the adjacent stall 2.

They should give Ladies Are Forever a good tow and bring her stamina into play. I took 5. Alutiq, overfaced in the pattern last year, came back to form when winning a Winners Are Welcome At Betdaq conditions race at Kempton in January but fillies have won the Cup only once in a decade. Maiden lightweights have won this but ratings buffs will be astonished if she can score off a massive , at least two stone more than any maiden has carried to victory before.

You can usually ignore mares over the age of six, with none able to reach the first two in nine seasons. She has the sound surface she needs today, but was easy to back this morning at Westerner, whose progeny perform so well on top of the ground, and had a fine Cheltenham with Western Warhorse and Deputy Dan, has a femme fatale here in Run Ructions Run. Midnight Cataria looked big at Niceonefrankie is hard to win with, still 7lb higher than his last success, and this is a mile further than his longest winning race at this level.

Has been brought back steadily for this. Storm Survivor cannot be ignored, and he will appreciate the drying ground, but his total absence of form on the top tracks is a worry in this company. He has scored just the once, suggesting he is very one paced. The dark horse of the race is Vodkato huge at He had winners in both races at and The jumps season ends Daqman 39, Pricewise The stablemate, Alainn, is from a sprinting family and traces back to the lightning-fast Dayjur.

Only 61 to come! Interesting that the leading trainer in the race, Dermot Weld two wins , has put blinkers on the grey Go For Goal. My pick is a 6. He is also the sire of Chapter Seven in the next, the Irish Lincolnshire. Three times since , when the ground has been heavy, as today, high numbers have swamped the field.

In , when 24 ran, the result by draw was 19, 25, 22, 26, 21, In 26 ran , it was stalls 27, 26, 5, 17, 16, And last year 20 ran , it was 15, 3, 12, 14, 19, He won the 7f race on this card now the Johnny Murtagh three years ago. However, the trainer, four times a winner of this, reckons better ground is needed. High in the weights but the compensation of stall Three times a CD winner, has been out in Dubai for the winter.

Demands respect as Irish Cambridgeshire runner-up, but prefers better ground. The hood could transform Man Of Erin stall 21 but it will have to. Chapter Seven was only a length off the winner, giving a stone, in the Dubai Duty Free 1m 2f in September and backed ante-post for the Cambridgeshire. But he swerved the big handicap and instead, with Spencer up, was again beaten around a length in the Group-3 Darley Stakes behind Sandown Mile Group 2 runner-up Highland Knight.

The English raider, Lord Aeryn stall 13 , is down in the weights and has handled soft ground but has winning form only on a sound surface. Pivotals love soft ground but his son, Shipyard 19 , close up in the market this morning, is hard to assess after one handicap, though the horses around him that day have done nothing.

Jamie Spencer stays on board after three runs on a sound surface at Meydan. The draw is not such a worry, since Chapter Seven gets behind, so expect him to be brought with a long run through tiring horses. Potentially a bigger price in running. The only one for money this morning, Stuccodor 6. Does not seem ground dependent, and the stable is four from seven, including a fine performance for me with Roalco De Farges yesterday, same connections as my Grand National hope, Balthazar King.

Early-bird horses and trainers win year on year. Make yourself a list of stables which are successful in March-April-May, and log the horses that score when fresh. The Fahey yard has struck with such outsiders that its level-stakes profit was points to a single point staked on each April runner over the last five years.

Mark Johnston has had more than March-April winners in the five years. And Richard Hannon scored that many in May alone. Good Speech was running in class 3 and 4 last backend but back him, if returned to class 5 form-figures That means he needs to shed a couple of pounds. Heeraat is ultra-game and genuine. Stepped up from class-3 handicaps to Group-3 success.

Favourite track Newbury, so look out for him at the Greenham meeting. Tremendous stuff. Acts on any going. Only six starts since his debut and can improve again. Has had a run back on Polytrack. Probably needs to lose a few pounds. Improved 25lb to run in the Abbaye at the backend but the ground was against her.

Likes straight track Sandown, Newmarket. The incredible Daqman yesterday landed his eighth bet from three winning days in a row through Bull And Bush WON , and his outsider of the day missed strike by a neck, Tara Tavey 2nd Now check these colts and fillies out in the trials, and look for his Classic conclusions in a revised Ten at the end of April. Just the sound of that mating has the mental betting-tills going ching-ching!

Goes straight to the 2, Guineas, then the Derby. Rail Links like a firm surface and Selkirks love some cut so the jury is out on going preference. Ran up to Toormore on the debut last season but this Oasis Dream colt looks Group 3 at best, albeit a potential top earner at 6f and 7f. Impressive enough at Lingfield to earn offers of Though his two-year-old career, capped by success in the Racing Post trophy, was on an easy surface, his action suggests that he is sure to enjoy fast ground.

Yet this highly regarded sort is related to winners on the Flat at Listed and Group level up to 1m 4f and over hurdles up to 2m 3f. Lat Hawill has a Greenham trial date at Newbury when connections hope he will belie his Speed allied to such prospective stamina would make this colt formidable.

The runner-up in his Vintage Stakes win went on to take the Champagne Stakes and the Breeders Cup Juvenile, and the one that chased him home in the National Stakes had taken a prestigious juveniles double in Ireland, the Railway and the Phoenix. Toormore preps for Newmarket in the Craven Stakes.

Offers of The others are all from the second-season Classic generation. The French scene was buzzing with talk of a new star when she took the Prix Diane but became international news when the filly she beat that day went on to take the Irish Oaks. Giles Bravery has the worst figures with 70 losers in 12 years. Colin Teague and Mandy Rowland are half as bad, and Michael Chapman has gone a mere days without winning on the course.

It leaves me fancying Imaginary Diva huge at 8. Visors have helped Islandmagee into a place but he continues to show lack of resolution. Tokyo Javilex is a deliberate jumper who can lose ground at his fences. How does he do it? Today he reveals seven simple secrets in advance of the Flat season in England, which starts on Saturday.

Beware of them until the form has settled down around Derby time. Weight: At age three and four, improvers can climb the ratings and resist the attentions of the handicapper but older horses should only be backed close to their previous winning rating. The rating determines the weight carried but remember that the races are graded, so a high rating and big weight in a class 4 could be a moderate rating and a much lower weight in a class 2.

Stats: Whatever some of the so-called experts tell you, stats are vitally important. Trainers are creatures of habit: follow their winning patterns they do it themselves! The draw is often vital in determining the outcome of a race; swat up on it. Remember, the man who stands alone gets the best prices. Fitness: As a general rule, a handicapper should be left alone for two races before you can be sure he is race fit.

But there are other factors see Freshness below. In assessing a horse, be sure to consider the conditions: is it the right trip on the right going? That also applies to hindsight: check before writing a horse off: defeat may have been occasioned by the wrong conditions and the run can be ignored. Freshness: There are three types of animals that win first time.

What other chance has he got? As we surmised, he was probably going to score by default. He expended his nervous energy before it was needed for the finish. But such animals are very often among the false favourites, and you must learn to love them for this very different reason: taken out of the total percentage in the orange, they could leave you able to back everything else in the race and show a profit.

Lays: Of course, the short cut to a profit on a false favourite is to lay him. But be warned that, unless the lay is part of your positioning on a particular race, you must assess the longer-term outcome before opposing horses with hard cash in a sequence of lays. She started her racing career in bumpers last year and won a 1m 6f event at Warwick in November where she made most of the running. He was staying on that day and should be suited by the longer trip tonight. Able Dash though looks the one.

The third placed runner gave the form a solid boost with a subsequent six length success. The Mark Johnston trained Spin Artist looks a classic win, with place lay insurance proposition. We can back Spin Artist at 5. He came back to form at Southwell last time out but seems equally at home on the Polytrack. B Won a race of 14 to 20 runners 8 out of 10 C Winner or beaten only about a length, or placed in big race, first start in any previous Flat turf season 9 out of 10 D Won or second at Doncaster or Newmarket 9 out of 10 E Drawn in stalls 9 to 16 7 out of 9.

X Factor: Early-bird stable or one in fine form. The split for the Spring Mile 3. And Hayley Turner rides Bronze Angel in the Lincoln for the first time since the combo had to settle for bronze, third in the Britannia, at Royal Ascot in Wins from the front and from behind.

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