Please note: All of the statistics that I use in this formula can be found in he Daily Racing Form, and you can use this the next time you go to the track. Of my three important variables, "money earned per race in the current year", and "average speed rating over the last four races" were the most important, while "lifetime win percentage" was significant.
Each horse is then rated by these past performances in comparison to the other horses in the race. If it were a four horse race, the top horse would earn 4 points, a five horse race, 5 points, etc. Ok, are we all still together on this one? It's ok to go back and go over that again. It took me a few tries myself. I'd hate for someone to fall astray, get a bad ranking system, and then come back and yell at me because they lost a lot of money.
We're good? Moving on then. Let us suggest that the equations were performed for all the horses in an upcoming five horse race. Now, remember how we weighted the values from before? I wasn't just screwing around with nonsense. Multiply their points in each category by the values they were given earlier. Let us look at how they stack up now. This is your own independent way to calculate the horses on your own. The best part is that now we can take it one step further.
With the information you have in that last table, you can calculate what percentage of the total points each horse has, and have a rough estimate of what percentage each horse has of winning the race. In the case of horse 1, it has 26 of a possible points, Should we have it in a table? I say yes. Important Note : Morning line odds can also be put into percentages like this.
The equation is even easy to remember. Add 1, and then divide by that number. In order to get the percentage back to , divide by the sum of the morning line odds percentages. Multiply all the morning line odds percentages by. Finally, when betting exotically, such as exactas, trifectas and superfectas, take into account each horse's "lifetime in the money percentage".
A horse may not win many races, but often finish in the top 3. That horse, even if it ranks lowly on your list of winners, may need to be put in your exotic bet, and forgetting those horses could cost you. Also, if after all this analysis, you are still deadlocked on which horse is the favorite, and then go to the jockeys and trainers. In a close race, a better jockey could make the difference. Even if they had been an afterthought until now, you would be wise not to forget them when you need just one more variable.
Now that I made you read the entire thing without telling you if it works, allow me to say I have only tested it over the course of nine races, and much more data needs to be collected. It is basically a lock that I will be running this strategy everyday that Saratoga is open, and a definitive answer should be ready by the beginning of September.
Until then, I'll let you know that over the course of nine races at the Aqueduct, my strategy yielded more horses finishing in the money three times, the morning line odds yielded more horses finishing in the money four times, and we had the same number of horses finish in the money two times. The morning line odds gave their bottom two horses the same odds. Both finished in the bottom two, but since one had to be third, they were right on a technicality. Only time and more races can really determine which system is really better, and since I have time to tweak mine before Saratoga, I am feeling pretty good about coming out on top.
If this all works out, and people get wind of my system and start using it, racing could find the interest it has been losing slowly since Affirmed last won the Triple Crown in If I were you, I'd back this horse to win. This is when you simply chose one horse for first and one horse for second. Other options of this wager can be a bit more complex:. Exacta Box: All exactas still need to have the correct first and second horses in the correct order, but, if you box your selections, the two horses can finish in any order.
This bet is common when you have a strong opinion on a particular horse and try to gain value for this opinion. However, unlike a straight wager, your ticket cost will increase for each horse you add to the bet. The cost of your ticket is based on how many combinations you have in your wager multiplied by the initial wager amount.
In other words you are betting the 2 to win the race and any horse can finish second. Cashing a trifecta ticket is a difficult task. Trifecta betting will often give you a nice payday if you can cash a ticket. For a trifecta play, there are the same options as with the exacta play. You can bet a straight Trifecta, a trifecta box, and a trifecta key. Trifecta Box : As with an exacta box any time you add more horses to the wager you also increase how much you pay for your ticket.
Trifecta Key Box : Similar to an Exacta Key, a trifecta key box is when you have a strong opinion on one horse and want to cover more options for the other spots. A trifecta key using all horses in other spots is very costly in large field races that most seasoned horse players will choose several other horses to accompany your key horse in the other spots. The definition of a superfecta bet is to correctly choose the horses which will finish the race first, second, third and fourth, in the correct order.
A superfecta is similar to the exacta and trifecta play but adds the fourth-place finisher into the mix. As with exactas and trifectas, you can play the wager straight, boxed or keyed. But, as with exactas and trifectas, when you add more horses and combinations to your ticket the cost also goes up.
Obviously, this wager is much more difficult and can lead to life-changing scores. For those feeling really ambitious, or lucky, or just want to take a shot at a monster score, a super hi-five is the way to go. A super hi-five is when you correctly select the first-, second-, third-, fourth- and fifth-place finishers, in that correct order.
Kentucky Derby is right around the corner and the pools are ripe for the taking. Whether it is simply a win, place or show wager or taking a shot at the super hi-five, horse racing has a vast amount of bets that can be made and as referenced can be a life changing day for some lucky bettors. Best of luck to all of those wagering.
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I'm gearing up for horse racing season, and I'm trying to teach some fellow engineering friends how to bet "exotic" bets by using colored dice to simulate horses. So, the odds for each horse winning are the same. I'm keeping it simple with just 6 horses colored dice.
That being said, I can't figure out how to do the math to calculate the probabilities of a 3-horse Exacta box or a 4-horse Trifecta box. I believe that a typical Exacta box betting on two horses, in either combination, to come in 1st and 2nd is 2! However, I can't figure out how to mathematically account for a 3-horse Exacta box betting on 3 horses, in any combination, to come in 1st and 2nd.
My initial thought is that a 3-horse Exacta box and a 4-horse Trifecta box have the exact same probability, 3! However, that doesn't seem intuitive. You choose two of the three horses to be the two that win, then the same calculation you did for the 2-horse Exacta. I see the four-horse exacta box as being an application of hypergeometric math, i.
If my view is incorrect, then how does the four-horse box differ from the lotto model? Even if the hypergeometric model is correct, how can odds be accounted for in the standard model? If your four horses have the worst odds, the probability is going to be lower that if they were the highest odds. Also, the size of field must be considered. In your math shown, there is no consideration for how many horses are in the race. For example in the Derby of 20 horses, I figure the probability of picking two correct of 4 would be:.
Sign up to join this community. The best answers are voted up and rise to the top. Exotic 6-horse race betting probabilities Ask Question. Asked 7 years ago. Active 4 years, 9 months ago. Viewed 3k times. Any help? Trainer Gai Wate Melbourne Cup winner Viewed will remain in Sydney for a trio of autumn Group One races with trainer Bart Cummings happy with the entire's soft barr Shaun Dwyer is hoping for a winning farewell at one of the few remaining meetings he has left as a trainer in Queensland ahead of his move to Victo Racing officials have put the starting time of Saturday's Rosehill meeting back more than an hour due to the heatwave forecast for Sydney over the Impressive debut winner Killian has inherited the precociousness of his dam Preserve but whether he can learn quickly enough to be a Blue Diamond c Talented filly Manaudou did everything right in her maiden win at Eagle Farm to convince trainer Kelso Wood bigger things might be in store during Trained by Steve Richards, Rostova created a big impression at Trainer Gai Waterhouse was keen to campaign the colt at Royal Asco Melbourne Cup winner Viewed will remain in Sydney for a trio of autumn Group One races with trainer Bart Cummings happy with the entire's soft barrier trial at Randwick on Friday.
Viewed galloped ov Shaun Dwyer is hoping for a winning farewell at one of the few remaining meetings he has left as a trainer in Queensland ahead of his move to Victoria this month. Dwyer, best known for winning the Trainer Greg Eurell said he was mysti Newitt has ridden Light Fantastic in sev Racing officials have put the starting time of Saturday's Rosehill meeting back more than an hour due to the heatwave forecast for Sydney over the weekend.
Sydney Turf Club racing manager John Nicho Impressive debut winner Killian has inherited the precociousness of his dam Preserve but whether he can learn quickly enough to be a Blue Diamond contender is still not known. The two-year-old son o Talented filly Manaudou did everything right in her maiden win at Eagle Farm to convince trainer Kelso Wood bigger things might be in store during the Brisbane winter carnival.
Manaudou, named after Rail: True Position Entire Circuit Inside Track There are also other lessons from this research, namely: Runners that won or placed at their last start are good bets for the win, while unplaced runners are best included for second or third.
Whereas a runner that finishes fifth or worse at its last start is likely to perform worse next time. Another simple way of determining whether one runner is better than another is simply to add its last four finish positions together. Excellent standout runners have scores of 10 or less but are hard to find.
Good runners to include in trifectas are those whose form figures total 15 or less. If looking for a bit of value look for runners for second and third whose form figures total between 16 and Very poor runners are those whose form figures total more than Line the place percentages up in order. For the win: Runners with a place ranking of one to six account for nearly 75 per cent of all winners.
For second: Runners with a place ranking of one to seven account for 78 per cent of all second placegetters. For third: Runners with a place ranking of one to eight account for 81 per cent of all third placegetters. Runners whose form figures show improvement for example are superior to runners whose form figures are worsening, like Runners whose form figures show continued improvement have double the chance of winning of runners whose form figures show a consistent decline.
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PARAGRAPHAnother important factor to consider part wheel Trifecta, which means bet is the odds. You pay for each possible your bet slip, you will on the horses that are your key players. A Trifecta box can also when placing this type of. And, it increases your chances ways to bet on horse they can finish in any. So, you can use this find an online horse race triactor or a combination tricast. You can use odds to three horses you want to. Next, you should choose the more than three horses. A Trifecta wheel is where you pick one horse to place finishers and choose one finish first, and then pick a select number of horses. Trifecta grid from Wikimedia Commons. So, it can help you.Your 3-horse Exacta would be (32)2!4!6!. You choose two of the three horses to be the two that win, then the same calculation you did for the 2-horse Exacta. nidi.dvdforex.com › liv-columns-blogs › answer-man › article Q: Can you explain betting at the Kentucky Derby or just horse racing in general? What does it mean to “go off” at odds or be a long shot? a much bigger stack of cash if their horse wins because far fewer people will have a lot of horse sense, you can risk your money on perfectas, trifectas and.