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Given the recent historic turnout in Black communities in major cities around the country, Harris makes sense as the front-runner right now. The Democrats may want to maximize that momentum by nominating Harris instead of pushing for a second term for Biden.
If they do so, that would be a first. If the Democrats do nominate Harris in , it will be historic for other reasons, however. No major party has ever nominated an African-American woman for president, for example. The possible scenario has only played out one other time in US history. Only Grover Cleveland has served two non-consecutive terms as president in US history, serving his first from and his second from Despite the fact that Trump just got the second-most votes for a presidential candidate in US history, there is one big reason why he may have an uphill climb to secure a third nomination from the Republican Party.
In June of , Trump will turn 78 years old. That would make him the oldest major-party presidential candidate in US history, setting him up to be pushing 83 when his potential second term would end. By a similar measure, Trump also had more people vote for his opponent than any other incumbent in US history. Either Haley or Ivanka Trump would be the first female presidential nominee in the history of the Republican Party. Ivanka Trump would also be the first daughter of a president to receive such a nomination.
The lines on this event are called moneylines or straight bets. Using the presidential election as an example, UK books liked Trump as a strong contender. Polling data is fluid and changes over the course of an election period. Biden, who is favored to win the most delegates in all six states on Tuesday, is unsurprisingly the heavy favorite to secure the democratic nomination at odds. A lot can change in 48 hours, which we just witnessed with the Presidential Election.
After Tuesday, which featured a few important and unexpected victories for Biden, those odds have shifted quite dramatically. Biden is now the clear favorite to get the Democratic nomination, which has also influenced his odds to win the presidency. On Monday, he had a Here are the latest odds via the European book Betfair. Implied probabilities have the juice removed:. President Donald Trump is essentially a lock to be the Republican nominee for president; former Massachusetts governor Bill Weld and former Illinois rep.
Notably, former South Bend mayor Pete Buttigieg dropped out of the race after a lackluster finish in South Carolina this weekend, which could consolidate moderate Democratic votes toward Biden, who will hope for a strong showing tomorrow on Super Tuesday to rival Sanders, who still leads in odds to win the nomination.
It is important to note that this market is seemingly quite volatile right now. See the full odds via Betfair for the presidential race below. Implied probabilities have the juice removed. To see a more robust view of the betting market, I compiled the juice-free implied probabilities for the presidential candidates among four books below.
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